Jack Guynn, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (which covers a big chunk of the southeast), spoke at Nashville’s Downtown Rotary Club at noon. Not only do I agree with his take on the economy (see quote, below), I am pleased to say he can speak plainly. No Greenspanian obtuseness.
As for where all this takes us, I think the economy’s going to return to sustained positive growth by the third quarter of the year. The recovery, though, is likely to be more moderate than we’re accustomed to seeing. That’s because consumer spending and housing are not likely to provide the usual kick we’ve seen coming out of previous recessions and because there’s still considerable uncertainty surrounding investment spending.