How loudly can the experts cry wolf?

How loudly can the experts cry wolf? Why was the reporting leading up to the war and until the fall of Baghdad so consistently focused on what was seemingly going wrong…and what was probably about to go wrong? Like a chorus of little boys chanting “wolf,” reporters and analysts tempered any good news with a constant barrage of fear-mongering. Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately) this near ubiquitous worst-case scenario orientation of the vast majority of the war coverage will lead to an even more skeptical audience. (For the record, my pre-war prediction was on the optimistic side.)