I’m not one to say ‘I told you so’

I’m not one to say ‘I told you so’: Okay, I take that back. I am one to say “I told you so.” Last month, I predicted that the faux-statistic of year-over-year “ad pages” would be coming to an end within a month or two.

Rexblog flashback, May 11, 2004:

Rock bottom? Magazine advertising pages in B-to-B books continue to decline (Note: I’ve given up ever trying to educate anyone that revenues are more important than ad pages). The good news: within a month or two, lousy previous-year numbers will make such comparisons look impressive. Most flagrant faux statistic in this article: 300,000 advertising pages “have been loss” since the beginning of the recession. Lost? How can something be lost that never existed? That’s like politicians using the word “cut” to describe a slow-down in the rate of growth of a government program.

Well, this month we enter into the era of a new faux statistic: “gains-in-ad-pages.”

Quote from MediaPost.com:

For magazines, the long national ad-revenue nightmare may be over. For one month, anyway. After ten consecutive months of ad page erosion, the major consumer magazines tracked by the Publishers Information Bureau recorded a gain in May–rising 4.8 percent over May 2003…Reported advertising revenues rose 12.8 percent–marking the strongest advertising month so far this year, ending a 10-month streak of declines, and possibly topping off a lousy few years for the business, which had yet to feel the effects of a resurgent ad market.

MediaPost needs to clarify that last sentence, “ending a 10-month streak of declines,” as it is using apples (advertising pages have been down for ten months) to describe oranges (advertising revenues have NOT had a 10-month streak of declines, at least according to stories in previous months of MediaPost). However, I will agree, it has been a lousy few years for the business.

One thought on “I’m not one to say ‘I told you so’

  1. I’ve been posting similar stats about how ad revs have been up for a lot of pubs this year. While it is a good thing that the ad side and the edit side of the publication world don’t play in the same sandbox – most of the time – this is a time when it’s kind of unfortunate, because a writer could have figured out the difference in what they were stating.

    I’m not sure why people wouldn’t understand that selling less ads for more money would be a good thing in most cases. (though riding that slope couldn’t last forever!)

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