What is Facebook’$ value?

Dave Winer: “I’m tired of building networks of friends, over and over. Next time I do it, it’ll be for keeps. It’ll be the “real” social network, the one all future social networks build on.” … and … “If Facebook has the guts and vision to become this network, then it’s worth everything, even $10 billion isn’t enough…And Facebook has a clear shot at doing it. But there’s no evidence that they get this, and no evidence that if they do get it, that they’re going to move aggressively to fill the need.”

Observation: I find so much about Facebook that is compelling — addictive even. But until they do what Dave is talking about, they’re like AOL in 1995. A generation will learn about online identity and social networking by using Facebook, but at some point, users will want to kick the training wheels off. They’ll want all the savvy means of controlling ones identity and networks that Facebook offers, but they’ll want it all over the web: not just on Facebook. I agree with Dave on another point: If Facebook can become the (and I’m talking metaphorically, here, not technically) operating system for identity and networking, rather than being locked down to one website, then the company is worth far more than the amounts being mentioned.

I’ll stop there, although I could go a few more thousand words on this topic.