The storyline is this, people: The economy sucks. We’re in a gut-wrenching recession. Batten down the hatches for the worst economy since (fill in blank). And oh by the way, where are those MREs we stored up before Y2K?

The storyline is this, people: The whole Internet advertising thing is ready for a bust. Sure, online advertising is growing, but with the economy in the dumps, no way is Google going to keep growing.

The storyline is this, people: Small businesses buy lots of those search ads and small businesses are hurting now, so expect to see some fall-off in the growth of search advertising. It’s going to happen. We’re experts, we’re ComScore, and we know these things.

And then, Google has to go and spoil it all by out-performing the storyline and even having the audacity to ignore the storyline.

Quote from the New York Times:

“Google’s first-quarter report comes amid intense interest and speculation over the impact that a slowing economy may have on the Internet search giant and on the online advertising business overall. When Google reported financial results for the fourth quarter of 2007, Mr. Schmidt, told investors that the company had seen no adverse effects on its business from a slowing economy.

The storyline is this, people: There’s going to be a bust in all that search advertising and all those startups who are depending on Adsense revenue to help them “monetize” themselves are going to get flushed out when that crazy money stops flowing.

The storyline is this, people: If Google sneezes, web startups die of pneumonia.

The storyline is this, people: Lots of old-time web people wouldn’t mind seeing that happen.

Unfortunately for them, those wishes are delayed at least another quarter.

People, don’t ya’ll know the storyline?

Earlier this week, Russell Beattie, in announcing he’s pulling the plug on his year-old startup, Mowser, that provides publishers the ability to easily publish light-weight versions of websites for mobile device web browsers, declared, “I think anyone currently developing sites using XHTML-MP markup, no Javascript, geared towards cellular connections and two inch screens are simply wasting their time, and I’m tired of wasting my time.

He went on to say:

“The argument up to now has been simply that there are roughly 3 billion phones out there, and that when these phones get on the Internet, their vast numbers will outweigh PCs and tilt the market towards mobile as the primary web device. The problem is that these billions of users haven’t gotten on the Internet, and they won’t until the experience is better and access to the web is barrier-free - and that means better devices and “full browsers”. Let’s face it, you really aren’t going to spend any real time or effort browsing the web on your mobile phone unless you’re using Opera Mini, or have a smart phone with a decent browser - as any other option is a waste of time, effort and money. Users recognize this, and have made it very clear they won’t be using the “Mobile Web” as a substitute for better browsers, rather they’ll just stay away completely.

Today, Colin Crawford, Interactive EVP of the business-to-business media giant IDG, called Mobile devices the “dawn of a new mass medium,” and declared, “As mobile usage continues to surge, IDG will be at the forefront - guiding users through the choices of hardware, software and services, developing content and services for our mobile audiences and working closely with marketers to find the most appropriate ways to engage with mobile users and to measure the impact of that engagement. It’s going to be a very exciting journey.

He went on to say:

“According to the International Tellecommunications Union there are over 3.3 billion mobile phone subscribers (2.6 billion unique users) - that’s not far off 50% of the world’s population. The mobile industry is already significantly larger than the internet with its 1.3 billion users and it continues to grow rapidly. There were 1.14 billion units shipped in 2007, according to IDC, and that number is expected to increase by 8.7% to 1.24 billion units in 2008.”

I quote. You decide.

Google Maps users (including those who use it via the iPhone) probably know the service provides real-time traffic data for 30 U.S. cities, including my hometown, Nashville, where there appear to be a few fender-benders today. For a view of some nightmare traffic, here is the other city I spend lots of time in, Washington, D.C..

Now, if you click on the “change” link while the Traffic layer is visible, you can view a predictive version of the Map that, as in the example below, suggests what the traffic will be like at 4:30 this afternoon. The predictions are based on historical data.

(via: Google Operating System blog.)

Bonus link: A recent post on Search Engine Land compares traffic data on several mapping services, including some impressive new features on Microsoft Live maps [or Nashville traffic view].

My friend Steve Rubel does some “back of the envelop math” that he believes suggests $1 billion of Internet advertising is wasted.

His post reminded me of some universal advertising truths — and a century-old quote that addresses the dilemma. I wrote the following as a comment on Steve’s post, but thought I’d also mirror it here:

All advertising uses metrics that don’t account for the people who may not flip to the exact page in a publication, or may not be looking at a billboard while driving down the highway or who use commercial time to get up and go to the restroom.

This trainwreck in the making was noted 100 years ago by John Wanamaker, the turn-of-the-century New York department store entrepreneur, who is credited with the famous advertising line: “Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don’t know which half.”

Pay per click is an attempt to overcome the “wasted” impressions dilemma, as are TV infomercials that share revenue with broadcasters or direct-marketing ads in publications that do the same type of revenue share.

However, if “branding” is your goal with advertising, “placing” the ad anywhere is not what ensures success. “Impressions” are not results, they are mere audit metrics. Increased revenues (or votes or other actions) are the only metrics that matter in the end.

Great advertising generates reactions and results.

The advertising that does not do that is wasted — and that’s a lot more than 50% of what is produced and placed.

• From Print Magazines to Online Communities | Internetnews.com
  Quote - So while the flight of consumers to the Web is an inescapable trend, there are nonetheless synergies to be had between advertising in a glossy monthly alongside its companion Internet properties.
  (tags: magazines)