Earlier today, CNN/Opinion Research Corp. released results of a poll of 1,000 Americans in which 60% said they feel an economic depression is “very likely” or “somewhat likely.”

That’s depression. As in, massive unemployment and years of a falling U.S. economy.

It doesn’t surprise me that people are scared enough to believe there’s a depression lurking in the shadows. My friend, Jeff Jarvis says this episode of This American Life will have you standing on the ledge. I’m too afraid to even download it.

I’ve written over the past few days about why I believe nothing is more natural than for us to believe everything is going to hell in a handcart.

But let’s at least note that, while the U.S. has averaged a recession about once every 10 years — and we’re due one, it’s unlikely that we’ll have an economic collapse of the nature that is defined by the word depression.

A couple of metrics to consider when you measure a bad economy is GDP (economic output) and unemployment. Now, let’s review the numbers.

During the last U.S. depression, unemployment hit 25%.

We’re currently at 6.1% and during the past 60 years, the unemployment rate has gone over 10% only once, a 10-month period in 1982-83, during which it topped out for two months at 10.8%. Even pessimistic economists are not suggesting much higher than 7% for the current economic downturn. [Source])

During the last U.S. depression, the country had four straight years of dramatic GDP contraction.

Last depression: In 1930, -12%; 31, -16.1%; 32, -23.2%; and 33, -4% [based on current dollars, Source: XLS spread sheet])

In 2007, GDP grew 2%. The last “negative growth” was in 1991, -.2%. [Source: IBID]

One more thing to be aware of when considering the “D” word: One of the leading experts on the history and causes of economic depressions is a former Princeton University professor with a PhD from MIT. Today, he is perhaps the one person in the U.S. who has the most power to do something about preventing a depression: Ben Bernanke. (Later: More on Bernanke’s background.)

More later from the land of the rose-colored glasses.

Bonus link: An 18 month old “answer” by MSNBC’s John Schoen to the question, “Are we headed for a depression?” It includes some good historical context.

Oh, and another thing: I’ll admit that it’s hard for me to be down beat when Vanderbilt and the Tennessee Titans both have a 5-0 seasons.

I’ll hand it to Tina Brown. Her new web venture, The Daily Beast, has passed the first test. It has sucked in a gazillion links from the Macosphere.

What am I talking about?

I won’t repeat the history of the Apple lawsuit against the kid who started Think Secret when he was 13 and then grew it into a thriving venture by the time he hit Harvard. Finally, last year, he agreed to shut down the site and move on with his life. Well, today, Nick (dePlume) Ciarelli reveals where he moved in this article suggesting that Apple is throwing in the towel on suing fan sites. I hope Nick is getting paid lots because, on the blogosphere one Nick is worth about a dozen Tinas (unless her last name is Fey).

I’m a conservative investor, not a trader, but I’ve watched the market enough to witness ups and downs over the decades. As a dispassionate observer, I’ve witnessed run-ups and sell-offs and considered the psychological underpinnings of them. On mornings like this morning (it’s 10:30 a.m. EDT and the DJIA is off 407 points), I want to believe it’s a final flush of fear out of the system — something called a “capitulation” by market pundits. (The other possibilities are, it’s a crash (let’s hope not) or a correction (we won’t know for months). Again, I’m no investor — professional or amateur — but if I were, I wouldn’t be jumping off a ledge, I’d be preparing to jump into some incredible opportunities any moment now.

But hey, what else would you expect from someone who wears rose-colored glasses?

Idea: Again, the market’s down 407 at 10:30. Let’s meet back here in a month and reflect on what happened.

Later: “People are scared out of their PJs.”

It’s now 3:02 PM EDT and, as this MarketBeat column on WSJ.com quotes an options strategist, “People are scared out of their PJs.”

The market has been down over 700 points and is currently off 600.

Yes, people are scared out of their PJs.

Who can blame them? This is a scary day. Watching the DJIA is one thing, but we’re now in an era when individual investors can, via the Internet, view the value of their IRA drop in real-time. And with a couple of button clicks, they can get out of the market.

I’m guessing they’ve been heading for the doors all day long.

This should be a time when the Institutions step in and the pros start mopping up. However, they seem gun-shy as well. Here’s a quote from Steven Goldman, market strategist at Weeden:

“Normally when we get down to these levels, you think we’re close to the rally…On the other hand, there are very few parallels one can look for. It’s not to say we’re not due for a rally here — the market has dropped 10% since 2 p.m. on Friday — but so many things are falling off in so many different ways, and the question for investors is, is this time different from other times?”

As for me, when I hear a market analyst sound that stupid, I figure it’s time to start buying.

So I have.

Note for the archive: Today’s DJIA closed at 9955.50, down 369.88 (-3.58%). At one point, the Dow was down 797.20 points.