Steve Rubel is my friend. Not just a digital friend who I know in a virtual online way. But a real, live friend I know in an offline, physical-world, tangible sort of way. Whenever we can, we even get together to drink Kool-Aid from the same garbage can. However, as with any friends, we sometime disagree.
This post is a response to his post yesterday predicting the end of tangible media by 2014 which I figure was written after he got into a bad batch of Kool-Aid invisible grape.
My response is in the form of an allegory:
A long time ago, some early cave-dwelling humans wanted to post a record of the great sabertooth tiger hunt they had that morning, so they drew pictures in the sand. Soon, a smart cave-dweller said, “ugh” which can be loosely translated, “We need a more permanent and tangible medium with which to communicate with those in our social graph,” so he invented painting on the wall of a cave.
Soon, the idea of drawing cave pictures to communicate led to the invention […snip…] of the eight-track tape recorder and the rest is history.
Sparknotes explanation: People still draw pictures, but not on cave walls unless they are graffiti artists, and I’m still trying to figure out how to get some songs off an eight-track recording I have.
Long explanation: I’m thinking of writing a book on the topic, so you’ll have to wait for the Kindle download version.
As for Steve’s long bet. I think it’s pretty safe to bet against Steve as long as the definition of “decline” is firmly established.
Here’s a short bet for Steve: The Titans will beat the Jets next Sunday.