Alan Kay (who I’ll get back to in a moment) is credited with a great quote: “The best way to predict the future is to invent it.”
I’ll add to what Alan said: The second best way is to keep predicting it until someone else gets around to inventing it. And the third best way is to predict something and then spread every rumor possible that is remotely related to that prediction.
When it comes to one of the oldest Apple rumors I can recall, I have clearly done all I can to do the third best thing I can — to echo-chamber it. The rumor is that Apple will one day offer a device that is somewhere between a MacBook and an iPod Touch/iPhone. The device, now being labeled “The MacBook Touch” by the rumorosphere, has once again taken center ring at the Mac Rumor Circus. (Some latter-day rumorists are calling it a “Tablet Mac,” but that’s a rumor of a different color. Steve Jobs will never chase the tablet laptop market for reasons so obvious — even John Dvorak could figure out why.)
A device that is sort of like an 8″x10″ iPod that does everything a computer does but it won’t be called a tablet computer or an iPod.”
Strangely, for the past two years, if you Googled the phrase, “Rumor #3,” the #1 result has been a link to that list. To you, it might be called a MacBook Touch. But to me, it will always be Rumor #3. For past rumor posts, I’ve even Photoshopped up a version of what a Rumor #3 could look like (right).
But I have a deep, dark confession to make: I’ve never really thought Apple will come out with the product. It has been more wishful thinking than anything else whenever I echo-chambered such reports as this “patent” post on AppleInsider.com. My “rumor” posts have been more fantasy and speculation and desire to have the product I have called an iPod Touchbook (and here), than belief that Apple will offer such a product. Even today, I’m quite cynical and, frankly, don’t believe that such a product is going to be announced anytime soon. (Or, perhaps, I’m tired of being disappointed when these rumors I help spread never pan out, and I’m taking a new tact.)
My lust for a MacBook Touch started with a 1987 video about a concept product called the the Knowledge Navigator.
I’ll credit Apple (and in this case, the then “Apple Fellow,” Alan Kay) with first establishing the benchmark for my desire for such a device — and my willingness to serve as conduit for spreading any rumor which comes close to suggesting Apple will one day offer such a product. It started with a concept video Apple produced in 1987 that oozes with Alan Kay concepts. I’ve written about how that video describing the concept technology, “Knowledge Navigator,” set an expectation in my mind — and a generation of those of us who reside among the hyperlink-obsessed — of what one should expect to have one day. Today, now that all of the technology, infrastructure, pricing scale and marketing channels are in place for such a device, many of us are wondering: Where’s my Knowledge Navagator? (In 2003, Jon Udell posted a great item about the Knowledge Navagator concept video.)
A rumor is somewhat like abstract art — until the artist explains exactly what everything means, it can be interpreted anyway one wants. Until Steve Jobs strolls out onto the stage and explains exactly what this device is and what space in our mind it is to occupy, it will be all things to all geeks.
For me, Rumor #3 is about recapturing a little piece of 1987, when the promise of the future was not about feature sets, but about the cool things you could do if you have a device that goes with you everywhere and allows you to travel anywhere.
Note: One thing I didn’t like about the Knowledge Navigator was the “talking head” interface. I’m more of a touch interface person, myself.
Bonus link: The eBook people are finally catching on that a Rumor #3 device makes having a separate device merely to read books rather redundant.
The Important Part: The people at Facebook describe your list of “friends” (contacts) as being your “social-graph.” Others use the term “social network” to describe in broad terms, your network of connections with other people. Chances are, you call that list of connections your “address book.” In the previous century, you may have called it your Rolodex. Your ability to export that list of contacts from your computer out to web services (geek word of the day - “portability”) is one of the building blocks of a future web where you can go onto any new site or service and instantly discover everyone using it who may be a friend of your second-cousin, Herbert. Today, Google announced that the newest update of the Mac operating system includes a preference in the “Address Book” program that will keep the Mac address book synch’d with the contact list on ones Google G-mail account. Why is this significant? There are lots of really smart people and groups working on standards and practices related to how someone “asserts” their online identity and their connections with others — and how web services should respect how individuals utilize such personal data. However, until the day comes when all of those standards and practices are worked out, your personal e-mail address and your phone number are serving as a form of “de-facto” identifier of who you are. Likewise, your list of e-mail contacts are filling the gap on identifying your social network. And until the powers-that-would-like-to-be all agree upon what your portable “social network/graph” is going to be and how it’s going to work, your address book has become a stand-in. That’s why, when you sign onto a new social networking site, they ask if you want to allow them to bounce your e-mail contact list up against their list of registered users. That way, you can discover who among your contacts are already using the service.
Take Away: For Apple Address Book users who used to have to “export” and “upload” your contact list manually, you now have one-click portability (and on-going syncing) to your Google G-mail contacts list of your most important “social graph.” And from your Google contacts, you can blast that social graph to infinity and beyond (or whatever Google Friend Connect is).
Related rambling: About a year ago, I talked about the concept of e-mail address as universal identifyer in a lengthy post.
You can transfer audiobooks
from Audible.com to your Kindle.
That is, unless, you use a Mac.
Here’s some big news for audiobook listeners (I’m one): Amazon has announced this morning they are buying Audible.com. If you’re an audiobook listener, you probably already know that Audible serves as the back-end for audiobook downloads for Apple’s iTunes Store. However, as I’ve said on this blog before, it’s crazy to purchase audiobooks via the iTunes Store rather than directly from Audible.com as the direct purchase allows re-downloads of any books you buy — and the iTunes Store doesn’t. Amazon.com has a similar “library” backup feature for digital media purchased there (except MP3s), like Kindle eBook files.
I have some problems with audiobooks via Audible.com, however — some problems Amazon could solve. First, audiobooks are incredibly expensive — just like the inflated cost of eBooks before Amazon stepped in with the Kindle and a price around $10 for best-sellers. An audiobook of a bestseller is more likely to be more expensive than the print version — and in the same range as the cost of an audiobook you’d purchase on a CD in a bookstore. To get around such inflated pricing, I have a subscription plan on the service that provides one book credit per month. I never go over the limit as the per-book cost can be stratospheric — as in, provide me all the incentive necessary to drop by the Nashville Library and check out the book on a CD. Oh yes, and on a CD, those audiobooks don’t have all the DRM one finds on the same aduiobooks one downloads from Audible.com. Let me translate this: I can drop by the library and transfer DRM-free audiobooks to my computer. Gee, that sounds like the same issue Amazon.com fixed when they started offering music downloads recently. Hmmm. Dear Jeff: You can do it dude. Cheaper audiobooks. No DRM — just like the same books on CDs. Hey, you da man.
Speaking of audiobooks and Amazon and Audible, here’s a suggestion for Amazon: Quit locking out Mac users from using their Kindleto listen to audiobooks from Audible.com. Here’s what I mean: The only way to transfer an audiobook to the device (precisely, a DRM-ladened audiobook purchased from the leading online retail sources of audiobooks — Amazon, Apple or Audible.com) is via a computer. The only computer operating system with which one can authorize a Kindle to play an audiobook purchased from Amazon, Apple or Audible.com, is with software available only on the Widows operating system.
How did I discover this? I have both an iPhone and an old-school iPod nano for listening to audiobooks, so I hadn’t previously taken much of a look at the audiobook capabilities of the Kindle. And frankly, while the device has a headphone jack for listening to audiobooks, that feature wasn’t heavily touted in the roll-out of the product. After a bit of struggle recently, I can now understand why this little-touted feature is so little touted.
The first problem has been noted and is what the pundits would call “the elephant in the room”: While you can store the text and black/white graphics from 100+ books on the 256 MB of a Kindle, the number of audiobooks is considerably less — say, less than one, in some instances. In my experiment, on a Kindle with about a dozen text books already loaded on it, I was limited to one Audible.com file containing an eight-hour recording.
However, I couldn’t listen to any of that file, as I discovered the following message buried in the directions found on Amazon.com regarding using an Audible.com file on a Kindle (something allowed) if that file is transferred to the Kindle using a Mac:
“In order to play audiobooks on the Amazon Kindle, you must first activate the device to your account (using the Windows software, AudibleManager)…If you are a Macintosh user, you need to connect your Kindle to a Windows-based computer running AudibleManager to authorize your Kindle using the above instructions. You may be able to authrize your Kindle running AubibleManager on Windows on your Macintosh is you have your Macintosh configured to run Windows. Once authorized with your Audible credentialis, you can then use audible files downloaded through Audible Manger under Windows or itunes by copying them to your Kindle via USB.
Uh, no thank you. I’ll just use my iPhone.
Sidenote — a positive word about the Kindle: As I’ve written before, I have one and despite its god-awful hardware design and some of the most incredibly bad user-interface ideas I’ve ever witnessed (see earlier review), I like the convenience of having dozens of books in my briefcase and I especially like the think-it, buy-it instant-shopification features it offers with an EVDO-powered access to the Amazon store. Oh, yes, and I’m big fan of the way your ebook purchases are backed up on Amazon.com. Unlike most badly designed things — say, the QWERTY keyboard — the Kindle’s bad features never get easier to use with experience. Almost daily, I’ll pick it up to put it away to discover I’ve advanced dozens of pages in the process. It boggles me that its designers failed to take into consideration how people hold a book when they read it.
But that’s not what I wanted to rant about this time.
I figure as long as we can keep this rumor alive, maybe there’s hope that one day it will come true. (And when it does, I’ll see you in line at the Apple Store.)
Later:Webomatica lists some “thoughts” about what may be announced at Macworld. I like that: Not even rumors, these are “thoughts.” That’s sort of what my rumors are. Things I’d like for Apple to do, sprinkled with educated guessing, wrapped up in idle speculation.
Also, a .Mac feature called .Mac Web Gallery that marries “.Mac and iPhoto” — iPhoto “08″ has some enhancements also. Jobs says, according to Engadget, that “users will get a rich Web 2.0 experience.” (ugh). As I am a long-time .Mac subscriber who has always wondered why. This sounds — conceptually, at least, like an attempt to add Flickr-like features to it. There’s much more mojo to Flickr than mere display of photos, so I’d hesitate to suggest there is the least bit of threat to that service. Even if I use .Mac Photo Gallery, I can’t see it replacing what I do on Flickr.
Later: As it requires an iPhoto ‘08 upgrade to use, I’ll be delaying my experimentation. However, the video on Apple.com provides a preview of an impressive way to post and share photos and videos. Doubt they’ll have the ‘community’ aspects of Flickr, but the user interface and animated commands are very iPhone/iPod-like. Like on iTunes album-flipping feature, you can sweep through dozens of photos. Also, you can post to .Mac and then view on an iPhone — a significant feature. For the “first month of iPhone,” “streaming” video via iPhone has been limited to a sub-set of YouTube — and there was no way to upload to YouTube and be guaranteed that your video would show up — unless, say, you threw an iPhone in a blender. This indicates that “streaming” will be coming to the iPhone in a myriad of ways.
Later II:I was just thinking back that a base-model Mac in 1984 (my first Mac) cost $2,495 (the equivalent of $5,000 in 2007 dollars*) for a computer with processing speed of 8MHz and 128 K of memory (I bought lots of floppy disks).
The base model of the iMac announced today costs $1,200 and has 2.0 GHz of processing speed and 250 GB of memory (hard disk storage).
More staggering (to me, at least) is the ability to purchase a tricked-out iMac for about $3,500 that has 2.4 GHz of processing speed and 1 TB of memory (storage). In 1984, such a machine would have cost, what, millions? I’m out of my league here, but for any hardware geek out there, how does today’s desktop iMac compare with a “supercomputer” of 1984 — say, a Cray X-MP, in terms of memory/processing?
There are textbooks of economic principles and laws packed into the evolution of the desktop Macintosh as it is one of the few consumer computer hardware product lines that has been in the marketplace for 23 years using the same (Mac) brand. Lots of classroom fodder related to principles related price / performance / demand / scale / efficiency / competition / productivity / innovation.
*In 1984, a Mac retailed for $2,495. According to this ‘cost-of-living’ calculator on the American Institute for Economic Research website, the rate of inflation reflected int he US. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index estimates that $2,495 in 1984 is equivalent to $4,939.57 today.
I just discovered a new term. It’s a term I would have preferred not to discover. The term is “Powerbook narcolepsy” and it refers to Mac PowerBooks that randomly shut down. (It’s similar to “MacBook narcolepsy,” another term I’ve just learned.)
Macbook narcolepsy is something you will never see dramatized on an “I’m a Mac, I’m a PC” ad.
I learned about the term when my 17″ Powerbook G4 started randomly shutting down about 24 hours ago. And when I say random, I mean random. It can go for hours — like now, for instance — without shutting down. And then it will shut down every few seconds. Sometimes it merely goes into sleep mode. Other times, it dies. The rexblog director of hackology found a helpful post and comment thread on the CMXtraneous blog with plenty of suggestions on the causes of and treatments for PowerBook narcolepsy.
In the morning, he will try some of the non-invasive remedies we’ve discovered out on the Macosphere. However, he really loves it when fixes involve a screwdriver — the tool, not the drink. As for me, I’m hoping for a magic pill, maybe some iProvigil to treat it.
Michael Dell on whether or not Dell would put the Mac operating system on a PC (as quoted by Fortune senior editor, David Kirkpatrick): “If customers wanted it and Apple would license it on reasonable terms…It’s Apple’s decision.” The article contains other interesting things about Windows running on a Mac (and vice versa).
It has become very apparent to anyone wanting one: It’s not that easy to purchase an “Apple iSight” firewire webcam. The former URL Apple.com/isight redirects to a general Mac accessories page. Only two items remain on the Apple.com page related to iSight accessories. Last Thursday, Patrick Ragsdale, rexblog director of hackology, was told by an Apple reseller that their company had been officially notified by Apple that the iSight camera model previously sold is officially retired. A search on eBay shows that used iSights are getting a premium. And on Amazon, the cameras are only available from resellers who are listing the price of a new iSight camera for $550, twice Apple’s price.
With such demand, why has the “firewire” iSight camera been discontinued? One obvious reason is that an iSight camera is now built into MacBooks and iMacs and new Apple monitors are expected to include them. Indeed, one of the current “I’m a Mac, I’m a PC” commercials is dedicated to touting the built-in iSight camera. However, there is still a need for an iSight camera that is independent from a MacBook or monitor. The one I have sitting on the top of my monitor is not only great for a face-to-face video chat, but also for swinging around so that someone can monitor the notes being written on a white board on the wall across from my desk. It is very apparent Apple doesn’t believe the only direction someone wants to point a camera is towards ones face as the camera on the new iPhone is pointed in the opposite direction.
So what gives?
My prediction — or more correctly, my wild guess — is that we’re about to hear an announcement of the #6 rumor on my “All the Apple rumors you’ll ever need“: A wireless iSight camera. I predict it will utilize 80211n and will work seamlessly with the new Apple Airport Extreme and a lot of Macs already sold that, for a $2 ‘unlock fee’ have 80211n. Perhaps an 80211n iSight camera could also work with the AppleTV so that you could stream video from the camera directly onto your HDTV (currently, the only feature of the AppleTV is the streaming of content from iTunes). A camera such as an 80211n wireless iSight camera with the proper type of power supply (the current iSight is powered by the computer via its firewire connection) could be used in a myriad of ways. For example an airport extreme (perhaps with a Mac mini) and a few wireless iSight cameras could be packaged as a powerful, yet comparatively low-cost video survelliance system.
The NYTimes is reporting, “Apple is about to touch off a nuclear war,” said Paul Mercer, a software designer and president of Iventor, a designer of software for hand-helds based in Palo Alto, Calif. “The Nokias and the Motorolas will have to respond.”
Sidenote: The article includes this rather curious quote, “Recently, (Steve Jobs) told two associates, who asked not to be identified to avoid damaging their relationship with him, that he was more excited about his current project than he was about the Macintosh.” (Will lie detector testing be insituted?)
Robert Scoble asks, “If it’s OK to print miles of bad press about Dell, why isn’t it OK to print miles of bad press about Apple?”
Before I list my top ten reasons for why Apple seems to get a pass on the type of negative press Dell gets, let me say once more for any pro- or anti- Apple readers who may not be familiar with this blog: I continuously have problems with the four Macs my family uses and the over 25 Macs my company has. I have an employee who spends a part of each day trouble-shooting problems employees have with their Macs. During the past 48 hours, my wife’s Mac wouldn’t boot up properly as the screen would merely flash a globe icon that was a new one to me. There is one batch of five PowerBooks my firm purchased about 18 months ago that have all required replacing failed hard-drives. Macs break. Macs crash. And Apple is a big corporate, secretive, walled-off, litigious, at-times-arrogant institution with customer service that, at times, is byzantine and non-existent. I have blogged many, many times of my frustrations and disagreements with Apple. That said, here are the reasons Apple doesn’t get the same negative press Dell gets:
1. In the corporate marketplace, where PCs run “mission critical” operations, Macs rarely sit on “mission critical” desks. In those places, Dells are easy to be found. When Dells don’t work, it can create problems for people running nuclear reactors. When my wife or Robert’s son’s Macs don’t work, it’s a pain in the ass, but nothing that is going to melt down a portion of West Virginia, say.
2. The Macs our company runs are a lot less problematic that the Dells our company runs. I could start with issues related to viruses, but there is no reason to re-hash the obvious.
3. I have employees who have said that one of the reasons they like working here is because we all use Macs. For employees to comment on the “brand” of office equipment and note that it is “something special” about the place they work is, well, unusual. (I have one Austin-based employee who “hates” Macs, however, and she will tell you that I am happy to provide her a Dell. Actually, happy is not the word she would use, but I am, indeed, happy to provide her a Dell.)
4. Apple has one of the most helpful “user communities” ever known. In fact, their “user community” is the role model for consumer “communities.” Perhaps, it’s because the Mac “community” is something Apple didn’t create (at least, not the real community) and don’t try to (at least, overtly) control, but have had the wisdom to support and foster. Indeed, I have a hard time thinking of another consumer brand (or even, media brand) “community” that is actually a “community” and not something a corporate communications or marketing department dreamed up and called a “community.” In 1986, I was attending monthly meetings of the Nashville Mac Users, a group that is still very active.
5. Related to #4, Apple users, perhaps because of their small (relatively speaking) numbers, have developed small tribes that hang out in places like MacAuthority in Nashville. These small businesses helped create and foster the Mac community yet have been, in many instances, crushed by Apple’s retail store strategy. However, MacAuthority and others like them still survive and thrive among niche power-user communities of Mac owners. Professional designers, filmmakers and musicians, for example, know that the local Apple Store is more geared to consumers than to them. If you are setting up a studio or editing bay, a place like MacAuthority is a god-send. (It’s also a great place if you are a consumer — it’s just a little less convenient than the mall.)
6. Apple may not allow employees to blog, but they have hosted a user discussion forum for as long as I can remember.
7. The proliferation of Apple stores gives the appearance (and reality) of the chance to interact with a live human-being that can help you solve your Mac delimma. I could rant here about the way the “genius bar” outrages me when I can’t get an appointment or when I’m told I need to pay extra to be insured that I can get a place in the line, but I still know there is a place I (in theory, at least) can go for help. (Again, I’m fortunate, because I have a much better “genius bar” at the office.)
8. It’s false the suggest Apple gets only “positive press.” As a long-time Mac user, I am constantly aware of negative reports about anything Apple does. That’s because there is a dedicated corp. of Mac users who spend their free time looking for such negative coverage and refuting it. Apple needs no PR response to negative press primarily because there are many bulldog niche bloggers who stand ready to defend Apple, even when it’s wrong. That said, this same group is constantly pushing Apple for newer, better, cooler stuff — and spreading any Apple conspiracy story or rumor they can detect. They also constantly write about “what Apple could do wrong” that would make it uncool and just like other computer companies.
9. Three words: “compared-to-what?” Yes, I can tell you several ways my Mac sucks and how outrageously Apple handles things like DRM. At times, I get impatient with my Mac when it doesn’t respond the way I think it should…but it works better and more easily and more dependably than most of the technology I encounter — heck, my cell-phone is a lot more difficult to use and is way less dependable.
10. My Mac is a part of me. It transcends being merely a “tool” or piece of equipment. I spend half my life touching it in some way. I run a business with it. I communicate with the world — and my family — with it. I expect to have to learn how to use it and to keep learning how to use it better — and have come to accept that, like everything else in my life, glitches occur with what is, at least for me, a mission-critical part of what I do. I am convinced — for many reasons — my Mac is special. It’s like my children. They are special. Especially, they are special to me. But I think they are special, in general. Despite their specialness, they sometimes (rarely) do something that makes me believe their operating system must be fried. However, even when I have to reboot them and they have to spend a week-or-so in the shop, I know I’d never want to trade them in for a kid running Windows.
Note: I will be attending the keynote speech at MacWorld next week and will probably pick up this conversation again after that. While I’m sure I’ll blog the event here, I’m “covering” it as part of another hat I wear.
Here are some items I would write about if it weren’t such a beautiful fall day in Nashville and my wife didn’t have a long list of things I’ve been putting off:
the iRecord, a device that “turns your video iPod into a DVR. (Translation: DRM-free video)
Search Amazon.com for items Prime customers can have shipped “free.” (Translation: someone has come up with a clever way to drive traffic to their affiliate store.)
Dave Winer’s MacBook sage. It reminds me why I never buy a new Apple product when it comes out. I usually wait several months and let them get the kinks worked out. I’m with Dave on his observation of the Apple commercials suggesting Macs are more reliable than PCs. As someone who has about 25 Macs of all types running in a business environment — and who spends 8-10 hours a day using a Mac — I know this for certain: they break. They require maintenance and upgrades and hard drives need replacing and really stupid glitches show up. We back-up data constantly because we know that Macs break. (We also have plenty of PCs — Dell and Sony — and they break also.) Point: Macs crash and burn just like PCs. To advertise they never do is crazy.
Sight for sore eyes: Yesterday afternoon, I got more powerful glasses and contacts. But I’m still glad I learned (via Dave Winer) of a rather helpful Mac OS X 10.4.8 feature that allows me to use my Mighty Mouse or a two-finger drag on the trackpad to zoom up the magnification of my Mac’s monitor. This is one of those times were a simple video can display what I’m talking about so much better than a bunch of words. Here’s what it does:
A couple of years ago, I posted a list of “All the Apple rumors you’ll ever need.” Of everything on the list — including the iPhone — the only one I’ve ever really craved is “Rumor #3″:
I was just thinking back that a base-model Mac in 1984 (my first Mac) cost $2,495 (the equivalent of $5,000 in 2007 dollars*) for a computer with processing speed of 8MHz and 128 K of memory (I bought lots of floppy disks).
It has become very apparent to anyone wanting one: It’s not that easy to purchase an “Apple iSight” firewire webcam. The former URL Apple.com/isight redirects to a general Mac accessories page. Only two items remain on the 
