I’ll admit it.

I don’t really understand why people writing about the economy and investing resort to temperature and weather-related metaphors to describe credit freezes and stock market meltdowns.

But they do, so I feel compelled to join in.

I grew up in south Alabama where even on the coldest days, the temperature rarely stayed below freezing during any 24-hour period. I did not see a snow-covered ground until I was 18 years old.

Perhaps that’s why I’m still in awe of winter. I’ve discovered that cold weather makes me feel alive. I don’t fear it or avoid it. I enjoy it — but only when it’s an every now-and-then thing.

I would never choose to live in a cold place.

Avoiding the cold is a dream of many people. That’s why, when you visit Florida, you’ll find that most of the people are from somewhere else — places where it’s cold and frozen lots of the time.

Most people don’t like to be in frozen places.

We’re at a frozen place right now — or, at least a place where people are freezing in front of their computer screens or CNBC or wherever it is where they discover just how bad the stock market has fallen since the previous time they checked. Even people who don’t invest seem frozen. And those who do, man, is it a cold outside. Last night, I was with several friends who, if this were ordinary times, would have been discussing two things: sports and politics. Our hometown college and NFL football teams are undefeated. The MLB playoffs were kicking off. We’re a few weeks away from a Presidential election. Yet the talk was completely focused on one thing: the frozen credit market and the continuing stock market crash. These people were feeling it. Big time.

People don’t like this cold and dark place. I don’t like it. I didn’t grow up in a place where this kind of thing happens.

But I do know something from going through some macro and micro economic swings that have included a journey or two through some very dark and frozen places. If you don’t fear or avoid the cold — if you stop being numb and accept the challenge and journey through it — you’ll discover a feeling that is like the one you have when you’ve found yourself on a double black-diamond run — when you’re only a blue-run skiier. Scared to death and desperately wanting to be anywhere but here — but strangely alive.

Focus on that alive feeling, and you’ll have wits to survive the run.

You can do it.

Don’t let the fear freeze you.

Bonus link: How cheap are stocks? (from the NYTimes.com’s Economix blog.)

Apple sales &
economic hardtimes
go way back.

Just when dire predictions of shopping malls being empty of all humanity for the next few months, Apple is rumored to be introducing an $800 laptop. Coupled with the news that 8% of U.S. teens already own an iPhone and that 22% of teens want one, at least there will be some foot traffic in those malls that have Apple Stores.

Sidenote: During the last recession, Apple gained market share by innovating and aggressively marketing their products when their competitors chose to hunker down.

And now for the obligatory Harvard professor quote (from the linked-to article) that all media people must repeat when writing on this topic: “It is well documented that brands that increase advertising during a recession, when competitors are cutting back, can improve market share, and return on investment at lower cost than during good economic times.”

I just read Om Malik’s report that the VC firm Sequoia Capital organized a meeting for its portfolio companies in which they were greeted with an image of a Grave Stone with the message: RIP: Good Times. Then, four speakers informed the startup execs that “things can get lots worse than people think” and they were warned to batten down the hatches.

I wonder if Philip Kaplan was in the meeting. Kaplan is the founder of the Sequoia portfolio company, AdBrite. The company has raised lots of money and is the #3 ad-serving company in the entire universe, so, no doubt, they’ll probably skip through the whole nuclear winter thing without missing a beat.

However, when it comes to grave stones and technology startups, all I can picture is Philip Kaplan spending a couple of years dancing on the graves of hundreds of startups that had to shut down during 2000-01. See, Kaplan back then was better known by his nickname, “Pud,” and he was the founder and editor and hipster-in-chief of the website, Fu*kedCompany.com

F’d Company didn’t merely report on the closures of those startups — it mocked and taunted the startups’ founders, funders and anyone who worked at the companies. It was filled with some of the most caustic, mean-spirited venom ever spewed.

Back then, I wondered how the people F’d Company taunted would react if a company Kaplan started ever had to lay-off employees or faced even more difficult decisions.

Maybe some of them are wondering if they’ll get their chance.

Not me, however.

I’m a rose-colored glasses sorta guy.

Bonus reading: The deja-vu-ness of this post caused me to remember a couple of links, including to an 8-year-old post on this blog.

Dot.com Crash, Enough Already (RexBlog - 12/27/2000): One of the earliest posts on this blog concerned the 2000 year-end recap of the dot.com crash/meltdown/depression, which I called in the post, the F’d Company era.

Lessons of the Last Bubble (strategy+business, Spring, 2007): Quote - Quiz time: What percentage of dot-com startups have failed? If you are like most people we have informally surveyed, you probably estimated around 90 percent…Virtually no one assumes that the numbers of dot-com failures and successes have been roughly equal, but that’s what our research found.

A Later Sidenote: What Sequoia should be telling its portfolio companies:

Early-stage investor Brad Feld is a voice of sanity:

“My recommendation to all of you entrepreneurs out there is to get off the negative sentiment treadmill, step up, and lead. The people working for your company are likely confused, concerned, and overwhelmed with all the noise in the system. In the near term, building your business will likely be more challenging on a number of dimensions. So what - that’s the normal cycle of business. You don’t need to be a blind optimist and spout happy talk, but you do need to have a clear sense of purpose and goals for your company….Get some exercise, take a shower, eat a good breakfast, and get out there and build a great business.”

Even later: Slides from the Sequoia presentation. They’re actually quite helpful in providing context for the current economic situation.

[Welcome Instapunditeers.]

I think both candidates failed miserably at the debate. They tried to ignore the elephant in the room — the crashing economy — and deflect the questions with standard bullet points gleaned from months of focus groups.

When 60% of Americans believe we’re about to enter a depression; when they’ve seen the value of their self-directed 401-Ks and IRAs drop by one-third or more in the past couple of weeks — it’s time to throw out the the 3×5 cards and talking points. It’s time to look into the camera and say:

The economic crises we’re experiencing changes everything about this election.

Over the past year, I’ve laid out many great ideas related to healthcare and energy and other critical issues. They all are of great importance to the long range well-being of the citizens of this country.

But there are a lot of you out there tonight who are afraid that you’re about to lose everything you own: that the country is about to enter another Great Depression.

I can promise you this. No matter which one of us you elect, that’s not going to happen.

I’d like to tell you that voting for me will be the answer to the concern you have tonight.

My opponent would like to tell you that voting for him will be the answer to the concern you have tonight.

But the fact is, neither one of us is the answer. The fact is, we’re both the answer.

Because we’ve got to work together to overcome the lack of confidence you have in government, in the financial system, in big business, in the news media.

We and our parties and business leaders and those who work for government institutions and those who are supposed to be the ones who keep us informed — we’ve all got to work together to help restore your confidence in all the institutions that have failed you because of their greed and sloppiness and mis-judgement and mis-management and fear and ineptitude and complacency.

Most importantly: You are the answer. All of you. Those who play by the rules. Who work and study and serve.

Those of you who work on an assembly line or at a small business or who manage large corporations.

This is up to you. You can do something about it by continuing to believe in yourselves and in the fundamental goodness of other people like you here in America and throughout the world.

It’s time to get over your fear.

It’s time to start believing again.

It’s time to start believing in yourself and in your friends and in your communities.

It’s time to support each other like you do after a flood or tornado or big blizzard.

It will take a long time for you to start believing again in government or Wall Street or corporate CEOs.

They — we — have let you down.

But you’ve got to start believing in yourself.

I believe in you. My opponent believes in you.

You are what makes me believe in a future that is filled with hope, not fear.

And no matter which one of us is elected President, that fact will remain.

Recommended reading: The first provides historical context related to the Great Depression vs. today and the second, an explanation of how panic (negative feedback loop) works in financial markets:

As Dire as the Times May Seem, History Isn’t About to Repeat Itself (Wall Street Journal)

Forget Logic; Fear Appears to Have Edge (The New York Times)

In Praise of Bernanke (The New York Times)

Earlier today, CNN/Opinion Research Corp. released results of a poll of 1,000 Americans in which 60% said they feel an economic depression is “very likely” or “somewhat likely.”

That’s depression. As in, massive unemployment and years of a falling U.S. economy.

It doesn’t surprise me that people are scared enough to believe there’s a depression lurking in the shadows. My friend, Jeff Jarvis says this episode of This American Life will have you standing on the ledge. I’m too afraid to even download it.

I’ve written over the past few days about why I believe nothing is more natural than for us to believe everything is going to hell in a handcart.

But let’s at least note that, while the U.S. has averaged a recession about once every 10 years — and we’re due one, it’s unlikely that we’ll have an economic collapse of the nature that is defined by the word depression.

A couple of metrics to consider when you measure a bad economy is GDP (economic output) and unemployment. Now, let’s review the numbers.

During the last U.S. depression, unemployment hit 25%.

We’re currently at 6.1% and during the past 60 years, the unemployment rate has gone over 10% only once, a 10-month period in 1982-83, during which it topped out for two months at 10.8%. Even pessimistic economists are not suggesting much higher than 7% for the current economic downturn. [Source])

During the last U.S. depression, the country had four straight years of dramatic GDP contraction.

Last depression: In 1930, -12%; 31, -16.1%; 32, -23.2%; and 33, -4% [based on current dollars, Source: XLS spread sheet])

In 2007, GDP grew 2%. The last “negative growth” was in 1991, -.2%. [Source: IBID]

One more thing to be aware of when considering the “D” word: One of the leading experts on the history and causes of economic depressions is a former Princeton University professor with a PhD from MIT. Today, he is perhaps the one person in the U.S. who has the most power to do something about preventing a depression: Ben Bernanke. (Later: More on Bernanke’s background.)

More later from the land of the rose-colored glasses.

Bonus link: An 18 month old “answer” by MSNBC’s John Schoen to the question, “Are we headed for a depression?” It includes some good historical context.

Oh, and another thing: I’ll admit that it’s hard for me to be down beat when Vanderbilt and the Tennessee Titans both have a 5-0 seasons.

I’m a conservative investor, not a trader, but I’ve watched the market enough to witness ups and downs over the decades. As a dispassionate observer, I’ve witnessed run-ups and sell-offs and considered the psychological underpinnings of them. On mornings like this morning (it’s 10:30 a.m. EDT and the DJIA is off 407 points), I want to believe it’s a final flush of fear out of the system — something called a “capitulation” by market pundits. (The other possibilities are, it’s a crash (let’s hope not) or a correction (we won’t know for months). Again, I’m no investor — professional or amateur — but if I were, I wouldn’t be jumping off a ledge, I’d be preparing to jump into some incredible opportunities any moment now.

But hey, what else would you expect from someone who wears rose-colored glasses?

Idea: Again, the market’s down 407 at 10:30. Let’s meet back here in a month and reflect on what happened.

Later: “People are scared out of their PJs.”

It’s now 3:02 PM EDT and, as this MarketBeat column on WSJ.com quotes an options strategist, “People are scared out of their PJs.”

The market has been down over 700 points and is currently off 600.

Yes, people are scared out of their PJs.

Who can blame them? This is a scary day. Watching the DJIA is one thing, but we’re now in an era when individual investors can, via the Internet, view the value of their IRA drop in real-time. And with a couple of button clicks, they can get out of the market.

I’m guessing they’ve been heading for the doors all day long.

This should be a time when the Institutions step in and the pros start mopping up. However, they seem gun-shy as well. Here’s a quote from Steven Goldman, market strategist at Weeden:

“Normally when we get down to these levels, you think we’re close to the rally…On the other hand, there are very few parallels one can look for. It’s not to say we’re not due for a rally here — the market has dropped 10% since 2 p.m. on Friday — but so many things are falling off in so many different ways, and the question for investors is, is this time different from other times?”

As for me, when I hear a market analyst sound that stupid, I figure it’s time to start buying.

So I have.

Note for the archive: Today’s DJIA closed at 9955.50, down 369.88 (-3.58%). At one point, the Dow was down 797.20 points.

Since the 1970s, I’ve been fascinated with (at times, scared of) an American sub-culture who are convinced that the nation’s economy — and existence — is about to collapse. I first noticed this group in the 1970s, when Howard Ruff gained momentary fame by preaching a coming hyperinflationary economic depression (along with predictions of an imminent earthquake that would wipe out California). With appearances on Louis Rukeyser’s Wall Street Week, Ruff was able to attract a large cult of loyal followers who were rewarded by missing out on one of history’s most incredible economic expansions. Ruff was just one of a large group of 70s-era “crash” evangelists. Since then, I’ve learned that “end-times obsession” and various forms of survivalist movements have been a part of history for centuries.

On this blog, I have discussed that fear is a good thing. Being afraid they would lose everything, without warning, at any moment, was a critical factor in the survival of our evolutionary ancestors. They gorged themselves with protein and fat when it was available, knowing they would have to survive on seeds and roots when it was not.

Our realistic and fearful ancestors are the Darwinian “fittest” who survived and evolved into us. That we cannot handle prosperity and plenty should be no surprise. That we line up to buy unaffordable shelter when banks want to provide us financing cheaper than rent is no surprise. That we drive 50 miles to save 2% on sales tax is no surprise. That we line up to purchase and horde gasoline when we hear rumors there may be a shortage in our area is no surprise. That we feel like we’re going to lose anything good that we may have — any day now — is no surprise. There is nothing in the evolution of humankind that makes it natural for anyone to be comfortable and joyful in a place of prosperity and peace. And knowing that societies continue to collapse and genocide continues to take place provides all the evidence necessary to convince anyone who wants to be convinced that the natural state of human existence is one of apocalyptic chaos and doom.

Indeed, it can be argued that many religious doctrines are built upon the foundational belief that nothing of this world is permanent, and therefore comfort can only be found in embracing and learning to love the only things that are real — this very moment, or the hereafter. All else is fleeting. All else is, in the words of a great poet, dust in the wind.

So that fear you are sensing right now — the one I often call “being convinced the world is heading to hell in a handcart” — is about as natural as anything can be. It takes an amazing depth of intellect and will (or, if you’d like to use terms like “faith” and “conviction,” those work) to overcome the baked-in anxiety our predecessors provided us and that evangelists of all economic, philosophical, religious and commercial persuasions continue to pitch in convincing books and infomercials.

What I believe

So here is what I believe.

I refuse to be victimized by a predisposition to dismiss reality and embrace the doomsayer’s survivalist scam.

From my observations of the past three decades of living in a uniquely prosperous place and moment in history (we know how to freeze protein and fat) — with economic opportunity available to more people than in any generation preceding it, I can see why it is easy to convince people that everything they have is about to be taken away.

Prosperity, freedom, relative peace — are not natural.

It is easy — it is natural down to our DNA — to believe we live in a country that is being taken over by whomever we fear the most: the right-wing, the socialists, the fundamentalists, the secular humanists, the religious zealots, the atheists, the pinkos, the rednecks, the elitists, Joe six-pack.

But succumbing to such fears — to be frozen by such fear — is a far greater threat to the world’s economy than any freezing of credit.

It causes us to become obsessed with threats where there are none. It causes us to store up roots and seeds when we still know how to grow and preserve crops.

It makes us act — or react — when we should not. It makes us ignore — or become obsessed with — things that may or may not be important.

It takes a lot to remain confident when you belong to the human race.

But we’ve reached a place in evolutionary history where survival is to the most confident — not to the ones with the most MREs stockpiled.

Later: I take exception to this post being characterized as a suggestion that people wear “rose-colored glasses.” Discouraging people from succumbing to fear-mongering is not the same as suggesting they wear rose-colored glasses. And while I am not necessarily talking about the stock market in this post, tomorrow’s (10.06.2008) Wall Street Journal’s ‘Abreast of the Market’ column includes this reminder of the reward that has come to those who kept their heads in previous markets when all those around them were losing theirs:

In late 1974, the Dow hit a trough of 577.60, and a year later had risen to almost 820 points, or a roughly 42% gain from its low. On Black Monday, Oct. 19, 1987, the Dow hit a nadir at 1738.74, a veritable nosedive from a peak reached some two months earlier. But a year later, the Dow had gained about 23%, to 2137.27 points. In 2002, the Dow hit another bear-market trough, at 7286.27; a year later, it traded at 9680.01, or almost a 33% gain.

Poor Steve Jobs is like the U.S. economy, rumors of his demise keep being greatly exaggerated.

A month ago, Bloomberg (the news service, not the mayor) mistakenly published his obituary and this morning, a “citizen journalist” on CNN’s iReport.com, posted a false report that Steve Jobs had a heart attack.

Jobs has been puny-looking and mysterious about his health recently, so there was enough truthiness in both the obit appearance and the fake rumor to make Apple shares fall — something they’ve been doing a lot of recently.

Or perhaps, it was the report this morning that jobs (the kind people are paid for) are what is having a heart attack is what made the stock slump.

Whatever, I think we all need to declare Steve Jobs’ health rumors a no-fly zone. If you see a report related to it, turn off your computer and TV for 30 minutes before reacting.

Sidenote: There is actually a name for a high profile — and harmful — malicious use of a user-contributed platform. It’s called a Seigenthaler incident and it refers to a series of events that began in May, 2005, involving a hoax article on Wikipedia. That unfortunate event led to lots of analysis and to tightening the requirements for individuals who edit Wikipedia. I feel certain today’s hack will lead to some re-thinking of such policies at iReport.com & CNN, as well.

Fear is a helpful reaction to frightening things, like the unknown.

It helps us figure out when to fight and when to flee. Choosing between those two meant life or death for our ancestors. We are, evolutionarily speaking, descendants of those who developed the best judgement in choosing between those two options.

Rarely is “doing nothing” the right choice when facing something that frightens you. Doing nothing is a lot more scary than fighting or fleeing. But often, that’s what people must do. We give “doing nothing” other names. Names like “meetings” or “waiting for visibility” or “budgeting process” or “more research.”

We rarely call “doing nothing” by it’s real name: Waiting.

And without a doubt, Waiting is the scariest place of all.

One of my favorite philosophers, Dr. Suess, once penned a philosophical parable called Oh, the Places You’ll Go, that is worthy of a re-read whenever you realize you’re in the scariest place of all: The Waiting Place.

I hate it, but The Waiting Place seems to be an inevitable part of life’s journey.

How you handle the waiting place is often the difference between survival and being eaten by a saber tooth tiger.

It’s a scary place. I try to avoid it whenever possible.

But when I can’t, I try to find a safe, dry place where I can start carving a big log into a club.

Last week at both Nashville and Chicago-Midway airports, I noticed their newly designated security lines for “families,” “occasional passengers” and “expert passengers.” Experts are those who know all the rules and don’t have to be told to remove their laptops from their carrying-ons or and know all the rules about gels and liquids. (They also are the ones who don’t want flight attendants to sing, but that’s another post.)

Such lines are fine, but yesterday, Southwest (the official airlines of RexBlog) sent me a card that allows me to whisk through security via something called “Fly By Lanes.” According to Southwest, “Fly By Lanes will not have dedicated screening equipment, but they will allow the traveler to reach the screening process more quickly by having access to a separate security lane.”

Here are the airports that will have Fly By Lanes by October 17th:

Dallas Love Field Airport (DAL)
San Francisco International Airport (SFO)
Los Angeles International Airport (LAX)
Denver International Airport (DEN)
Sky Harbor International Airport (PHX)
John Wayne Airport (SNA)
Thurgood Marshall Airport (BWI)

Wait. I don’t see Nashville (BNA) on that list. Yet again, my hometown airport is disappointing me. First they don’t offer passenger-loving free wifi like such wonderful Southwest-service airports as Tampa, Fla. and Manchester, NH. And now they are not supporting Southwest Airlines effort to make another experience less of a hassle for the professional traveler.

Bonus link: Recently, Seth Godin shared some random travel thoughts, one of which I’ve had while waiting in a security line (as someone who’s often admired how cleverly designed the queue areas are at Disney theme parks): “What would happen if Imagineers from Disney designed the security line? Why not let them try?

If I were in a sinking rowboat out in the middle of an ocean and the only way to save the boat was to throw an ideologue overboard, I would not hesitate to do so.

Anyone who is now telling their constituents they voted against "socialism" yesterday is who I am blaming for the future negative impact their "do-nothing" inaction will have on the economy.

Yesterday’s vote was not a chance to vote against socialism, it was a chance to vote against drowning.

Later - Bonus link: If you’d like the annotated version of this post, I’ve just discovered it: This profoundly insightful essay by David Brooks. Every word of it is brilliant. Quote:

"The Congressional plan was nobody’s darling, but it was an effort to assert some authority. It was an effort to alter the psychology of the markets. People don’t trust the banks; the bankers don’t trust each other. It was an effort to address the crisis of authority in Washington. At least it might have stabilized the situation so fundamental reforms of the world’s financial architecture could be undertaken later. But the 228 House members who voted no have exacerbated the global psychological free fall, and now we have a crisis of political authority on top of the crisis of financial authority.

Even later - Another bonus link: Another must read: Steven Pearlstein in the Washington Post.

While traveling home from Maine to Nashville late on Monday, I started and stopped several drafts of rants regarding the Profiles in Cowardice displayed by many members of the House of Representatives yesterday. Never has a headline captured the moment than this one from late in the night on Washingtonpost.com: “After $700B Bailout Is Rejected, Lawmakers Blame Each Other.”

I regret that members of the House were unable to overcome the pejorative label of “bailout” attached to the plan by the media and its opponents. As I wrote the other day, there’s no better way to get bipartisanship than by having it “branded” a bailout for Wall Street. Frankly, I couldn’t get a $7 Wall Street bailout passed, much less a $700 billion one.

The notion that this measure was not aimed at “bailing out Wall Street” will quickly become apparent. As apparent as those plastic bags that still cover the gas hoses at service stations all over Nashville — over two weeks after shortages in gasoline supplies here set off a run on gasoline stations — a run that is still keeping supplies low.

In this case, I hate to say, “I told you so.” I’d prefer to keep such reminders in the realm of sports predictions.

But just a few days ago, when I wrote about “the bailout,” I also predicted this outcome:

“The legislation will fail and the market will take a major hit. During the run-up to the election, there will be much shouting and gnashing of teeth and yelling of I told you sos and pointing of fingers and talking heads who can’t balance their checkbooks will spend hours trying to explain the way markets work.

Everyone running for office will say, ‘I was against the $700 billion Wall Street Bailout.’

Right after the election, Congress will be called into a special session where they will consider an emergency plan to provide liquidity to banks that need to lend money for mortgages and car loans and small business loans and loans for companies that employ, well, everyone.

It will be called a Main Street liquidity protection plan.

See, by November, we’ll all know what the word liquidity means and the role it plays in the life of Main Street.

Liquidity will be a killer brand. Liquidity will be the word of the year.

And no, I’m not for the $700 billion Wall Street bailout.

But I’m not for the people who are against it, either.

This is a time when I wish I had been wrong.

Who knew? It is really
dark before the dawn.

With the bailout/rescue plan “sealed”, this is what I think I know:

1. Everyone blames someone else for allowing the situation to get to this point.
2. Everyone regrets that we’re in this situation.
3. Something had to be done now — or it didn’t.
4. It will work — or it won’t.

I have no insight to provide regarding the current situation, however, when has that stopped me before? Here are three ideas that struck me while walking along a Maine coast beach this morning (right before getting ready to head back to Nashville):

Idea 1: The Economic Stabilization Plan Wiki:

I think a group of economists and bright students should set up a wiki that will capture and record the flood of hopeful and dire predictions flowing forth from major economists, advocacy organizations, political groups, high-profile pundits (including finance bloggers) and media sources. This group of economists and students should then track the plan as it is implemented outside of the glow of current media coverage. After establishing the benchmarks of what “the experts” have predicted, the wiki should then become the repository of the following: What is purchased, how the money is loaned or spent, how the loans are packaged and sold, what is the return on investment. Where the graft happens. What is wasted.

At some point, in two, five or ten years, it should then publish a report card of who was right and who was wrong among the experts who are claiming now to be all knowing. It should also report: How much did this plan really cost us? Trillions? (I’ve heard amounts equal to many times the annual GDP) or was there a huge windfall return for taxpayers on investment that will reduce the national debt or save Social Security? (I’ve heard both predicted in the past few days.)

I’m sure there will be a “National Commission on What Went Wrong” appointed. What I’m talking about is what is going to happen, rather than what someone (other than me) allowed to happen this time.

Idea 2: The “Too Big to Fail List”: In addition to the “National Commission on What Went Wrong,” I think there should be a “National Commission on Companies too Big to Fail.” If we are going to live in a land that claims to have free markets except for when — for whatever reason (that is someone else’s fault) — there are companies that need to play the “we’re too big to fail” card in order seek loans or other bailouts from the government, then we need to go ahead and set up a “pre-commission” on the topic.

I think if this commission determines a company is too big to fail — say, hypothetically, Wal-mart is determined to be too big to fail because it employs 2 million Americans — then such a company should be required to choose whether or not to opt into the “we’re too big to fail” category of companies. If the company opts in, it would be required to hold certain cash reserves and be subjected to a higher degree of fiscal transparency than most publicly traded companies. During good times, these too big to fail companies would also be required to pay into the Too Big to Fail Trust Fund. When bad times happen, only companies who have opted in can apply for a Too Big to Fail government bailout. If you’re too big to fail and haven’t paid into the Too Big to Fail Trust Fund, too bad.

Idea 3: Read this Brad Stone essay in yesterday’s New York Times on why we think it’s okay some people get rich (entrepreneurs and Tiger Woods, for example) while we think it’s crazy that others do (investment bankers and former Presidents, for example). Great article.

I’ve written a few posts the past few days regarding the semantics and rhetoric swirling around the credit crisis plan. I’ve noted how the branding and specifying could have been improved.

My attempts were child’s play, however, when compared to Andy Kessler writing today in the Wall Street Journal.

The “former hedge fund manager” and author writes:

“My analysis suggests that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson (a former investment banker, no less, not a trader) may pull off the mother of all trades, which could net a trillion dollars and maybe as much as $2.2 trillion — yes, with a “t” — for the United States Treasury.”

In other words, this could be the best deal since the U.S. purchased Alaska for $7 million in 1867.

I’m in. Where can I sign up?

See, if you market things the right way, you can sell anything.

[Note: While I'm an optimist, my reasons for supporting the plan take Kessler's theory with a grain of salt.]

Yesterday, I wrote about the way in which the “brand” that was applied nearly immediately to the plan for the government to provide liquidity to the nation’s credit markets doomed it: Who in their right mind can support a “bailout” of $700 billion for “Wall Street.”

Bailout and Wall Street are metaphors you don’t want in your corner when you’re in a heavy-weight fight.

Last night, while listening to the President, I (yes, I’m a history wonk) couldn’t help but wonder how it compared to the words Franklin Roosevelt used to describe the credit crisis the current one is being compared to. And so, through the wonders of Google, I spent five seconds tracking it down.

The Roosevelt fireside chat (his first) is one of the most famous Presidential addresses and media milestones in history. Yet listening to it, Franklin stumbles through some lines and puts emphasis on the wrong parts of sentences. It’s not one of his best performances. But evenso, he exudes confidence, credibility and leadership.

At times like these, we want leaders.

We don’t want politicians. We don’t want pundits. We don’t want candidates. We don’t want people who are selling books or who are desperate to appear on TV for any reason. And for god sakes, we don’t want yet another blog post. (Please, you are free to stop reading.)

We want leaders.

What the President should have said

I think the words of President Bush’s statement last night were succinct, rational and informative. Yet in the context of his 30% approval rating, they were unconvincing to 70% of us.

He was trying for FDR. He should have been more Harry Truman, another extremely unpopular President.

I think he should have said the following before launching into the explanation of his plan and why it needs to be enacted:

My friends:

Tomorrow, I have asked the leaders of Congress — Republicans and Democrats — and the two men, one of whom will be President in three months, to join me here at the White House to work together to solve one of the most critical problems that has faced our nation’s economy in many decades. What they do tomorrow can help set the course for economic recovery instead of the course we are currently on — one that leads to consequences I will explain in a moment.

But first, before I do, let me start off by asking that you stop looking for someone to blame for this situation.

Stop blaming members of Congress or Wall Street bankers or foreign investors. And please, especially stop blaming men and women who wanted the chance to live the American dream of home ownership.

Blame me.

I’ve been President for the past eight years and I fully accept the blame. It was on my watch. The buck stops here. As I will explain, this is not a crisis about some rich men on Wall Street or lawmakers who take their campaign contributions. This is a complex issue that is the unintended consequence of many different factors that, when looked at one-by-one, may have made sense.

But when I tried to address these issues in the past, I did not do a good enough job connecting all the dots for the American people. And I was focused on other things that I thought were critical to the nation’s security, but that have been very unpopular with the majority of the American people.

And so, my credibility to address these problems was non-existent. For those reasons, I accept the blame and hope that my support and encouragement for their efforts will help the men and women coming to the White House tomorrow find a way through this mess.

Furthermore, any success that comes from tomorrow’s meeting should be credited to Barack Obama and John McCain and to the leaders of the House and Senate. But if it fails, blame me….