This is war between two ideologies that don't have the time nor desire to sing together Kumbaya while holding hands and trying to come up with a way to help the entertainment industry legislate away reality -- even when it means turning their fans into felons.
I think people who say, “I don’t like to say ‘I told you so, but…’” are precisely the kind of people who like to say, “I told you so.” So I’ll try this another way: I don’t like being that guy who can’t wait to say, “I told you so,” but sometimes, no matter how hard I try, I just can’t help myself.
Last week, after a meeting with my congressman to discuss the legislation I oppose (and he co-sponsors) that is known as SOPA, I wrote a long post in which I included my prediction (or, more precisely, my hunch) for what would happen to the legislation.
Here’s an excerpt from that post that included my hunch:
I came away from the meeting thinking (however, this is a very personal opinion that was not stated or implied by anyone) that as SOPA’s critics turn up the heat (and the general population has seen nothing yet as to what type of heat its opponents can apply to demonstrate what some of the obvious unintended consequences could be if SOPA became law), members of Congress will look for ways to make SOPA go away, while appearing to make it look like they are doing something. Already, the bill’s sponsors have watered it down considerably from its original form. Water it down enough and it may as well be one of those Congressional proclamations declaring “National Anti-Piracy Week.”
Today, (I first saw it reported on the website arstechnica), the White House did one of those “smoke signals” things regarding SOPA (and its Senate twin sister, PIPA) when “three senior White House officials wrote that the administration ‘will not support legislation that reduces freedom of expression, increases cybersecurity risk, or undermines the dynamic, innovative global Internet.’”
And yesterday, also as reported by arstechnica, after the users of Reddit displayed how they could raise $15,000 in 48-hours for an anti-SOPA candidate for congress, there is a growing number of Senators and Representatives who are asking for their leadership (from both parties) to give them cover by not bringing up the legislation for any types of votes that will put them on record as being for, or against, SOPA.
Seeing White House policy people and members of congress head for cover is a clear indication that we’ll be one day celebrating National Anti-Piracy Week instead of turning over policing the internet to Time-Warner.
However, let me be emphatic: I’m not declaring victory, nor should anyone else on the anti-SOPA side.
One of the points that I made during my meeting with my congressman — a point that he dismissed — was that issues like SOPA end up having only two narratives — and the entertainment industry had control of the early narrative, but ultimately would lose. My congressman disagreed, saying there are many narratives on an issue as complex as this. As it was a group meeting and I was trying to be polite, I didn’t say, “This is not a complex issue, this is a war over whether or not the entertainment industry should control the internet — and by the time it’s over, nothing more nuanced than that will matter.”
The entertainment industry’s (and the coalition it has been able to enlist) narrative is this: “Piracy, piracy, piracy.” After first being caught flat-footed and far behind, the internet industry (and the coalition it has been able to enlist — for example, everyone who uses the internet who doesn’t work in the entertainment industry*) is this: “Censorship, censorship, censorship.”
Despite the desire of my congressman to turn the SOPA debate into a graduate seminar on intellectual property, this is war between two ideologies that don’t have the time nor desire to sing together Kumbaya while holding hands and trying to come up with a way to help the entertainment industry legislate away reality — even when it means turning their fans into felons.
Nor is there time for those of us who have spent the past decade actually experiencing what reality-changing benefits come from an internet that’s truly open (even more open than many of the tech companies against SOPA want it to be), to delve into the nuanced and intellectual arguments that would take apart the entertainment industry’s lies (although, this post on Freakonomics.com is a good place to start).
So “no-censorship” is the narrative of the anti-SOPA side (my side).
Of course the entertainment industry knows this isn’t just about piracy. Of course the tech industry knows this isn’t just about censorship.
But those are the narratives. And in the end, anti-censorship will win.
Frankly, I wish the anti-SOPA narrative was something more along the lines of an anti-corporate-controlled internet, but I doubt Google and Facebook would go there.
And I wish that songwriters in Nashville and elsewhere would recognize they are being dupes of the record companies and music publishers and performance-rights groups by agreeing to be their poster-children on this issue.
But none of that will happen, so Happy Anti-Piracy Week.
*Slightly exaggerated even though I know pro-censorship** advocates won’t get it.
**Those who call 14-year-old fans of Taylor Swift “pirates”
For a long time, as a service to the 12 readers of this blog, I’ve wanted to start using the label “Explanation” on certain types of expository RexBlog posts. That way, I can refer back to them whenever that topic recurs. So I created what WordPress calls a “category” and thought to myself, “hey, you’re a branding kind of guy,” so I changed the category name to “Rexplanation” and slapped together the accompanying graphic. This is my first officially labeled Rexplanation as I needed a post to explain what they are. By the way, I have an even better idea for organizing such contextual content (note to self: do a Rexplanation for the term “contextual content”) but it’s called “a wiki” and I’ve got too many projects happening now to tackle that one. If you’d like to see a list of Rexplanations, you can find one at the URL, http://www.rexblog.com/category/Rexplanation. (Note to people who read this when I first post it: There won’t be a list at that category link, as this is the first and only post I will have written using that category tag.)
In light of last week’s posts about the entertainment industry’s effort to enact the legislation called SOPA (here and here), I saw a couple of items early this morning that reminded me that much of the reason that industry wants to out-legislate what it can’t out-innovate is the frightening future they face. And I’m not referring to the intellectual property they own being pirated. I’m talking about the way in which the talent that creates that intellectual property is, more and more, going to jump ship (to continue the pirate metaphor) from companies that attempt to hold on to business models created in the age of I Love Lucy.
Here are the items: First, an article in this week’s New Yorker about YouTube developing new “channel” relationships with content companies — a strategy that is laying the groundwork for original programming from artists, online news organizations and others who can provide a steady stream of content appealing to a niche audience. According to the author of the article, when the studios and others wouldn’t work with YouTube for existing content (ala Netflix), YouTube developed a strategy to provide creators of programming access to unlimited airtime, rather than the scarce airtime provided them by traditional network and cable channels.
“But what’s the big deal?” you might ask. People are still going to want to watch programming on their big HD TVs and for that, you need cable and networks and the quality they can provide — not YouTube (he said, rhetorically).
Well, according to a worldwide study by Accenture released today, the number of consumers who watch broadcast or cable television in a typical week plunged to 48% in 2011 from 71% in 2009. Accenture says TV is losing ground to other devices – mobile phones, laptops and tablets. (And besides, you can stream video onto those HD TVs in dozens of ways, whenever you want the big-screen experience.)
Bottomline: When it comes to what video programming and distribution will become in the next decade and beyond, we’re about where network TV was when I Love Lucy debuted.
It’s a scary time for the entertainment industry. No wonder they’d like to put off the future as long as they can.
This is a shout-out for an event that takes place in Nashville every April, the St. Jude Country Music Marathon and 1/2 Marathon. This year, the event is on Saturday, April 28, and there will be 30,000+ participants in the two races.
I’m bringing this up today because it’s about 16 weeks until April 28. That’s time enough for you to start training for the half marathon, even if you’re not a runner (or, in my case, the world’s slowest jogger). I’m not saying it’s time enough for you to become an elite runner. I’m merely saying, there’s time for you to train enough to complete a 13.1 mile half-marathon between now and April 28.
I’m also bringing it up because I know there are some half marathoners from around the country who have heard about the Country Music Marathon — and I wanted to let you know that what you’ve heard is true: It’s a great event. (I’m addressing this to half-marathoners, as I figure marathoners have already planned out their year and, to be honest, I’m not sure they know what town they are in after about mile 21. )
As this is a part of the Rock ‘n Roll Marathon Series, there are about 40 bands along the route of the race. And the route of the half marathon is laid out in a way that provides a participant with a perfect site-seeing run (or, jog). It passes by or through nearly every major landmark people from around the country associate with Nashville: Music Row, the Country Music Hall of Fame, the Ryman Auditorium and Vanderbilt University.
The only iffy thing about the Country Music Marathon is the weather. That part of April in Nashville can be ideal (it was three four years ago, the last time I “ran” in it) or it can be a disaster: last year in 2010, there were tornado-strength winds and torrential rain and the previous year (2009), the temperature was well into the 80s by the time many of the slower runners were into the heart of the route. (Last year, the weather was great [see comments].)
This year, I plan to be in good enough shape to handle any condition — but I have lots of miles to go before getting there. But there’s plenty of time for me to do that — and for you to, also. (Okay, I started around Thanksgiving, just to be sure.)
I won’t be blogging about my preparation very often, but about once a month, I’ll report how it’s going. And while I’m a user of a “social training” service (runkeeper.com), I don’t use the social part for sharing my training publicly — except with my daughter, who will be running the marathon and is the captain of the Hammock family team.
First off, if you knew my orange-and-blue-blooded 80-something mother-in-law whose Florida car-tag is like, “Go U Gators,” you’d know that, while she loves me, she’d disown me if I publicly wrote anything negative about Tim Tebow.
True story: When Tebow was quarterback at Florida, my wife and I happened to be with my mother-in-law in Maine. The only place she could view Gator football was a sports bar 15-miles away. Even though it was one of those early-season games that Florida won by 50-or-so points, my mother-in-law got decked out in her orange-and-blue and headed to the sports bar to watch the game. By the fourth quarter, she was the only person left in the bar. (I feel bad telling that story, as I should have accompanied her.)
However, my mother-in-law and the giant Tim Tebow poster on the side of her refrigerator are not why I love Tebow.
And no, it has nothing to do with how great a human being he may be or how he’s a devout religious person. As I’ve said on this blog many times before, my admiration for athletes is strictly limited to what they do within the boundry lines of their sport.
No, the reason I love Tim Tebow is the same reason I loved the movie Moneyball. Specifically, the scenes that included the scouts sitting around the conference room table explaining how great baseball players look or the beauty of their swing or how they handle themselves. But, as the movie and book revealed — and what made them such a great book and movie, the experts who were depending on their “feelings” about some existential aspect of the player were wrong.
The reason I love Tebow is that I’ve heard for two years an endless parade of experts explain why he’s not worthy enough to be an NFL quarterback. I’ve never quite followed the reasons other than the same kind of blasts that Steve McNair used to receive: that you can’t succeed as an NFL quarterback by running. That he’s not a good passer. That he was good at Florida because he was surrounded by great talent. Or that, well, he was too big or too slow or too strong or didn’t think like an NFL quarterback.
The experts (ranging from radio sports talk-show hosts to NFL greats like Boomer Esiason), have seemed precisely like those Moneyball baseball scouts. They have been near rabid in declaring him unfit to be an NFL quarterback.
So the reason I love Tebow has nothing to do with how great a person he may be off the field (but, even though I don’t care about that, I hope he doesn’t crash and burn in that department).
No, the reason I like him is the same reason I like every feel-good sports movie ever made: For at least this season, when he got on the big stage today, the first round of the AFC playoffs, the place he was going to display just how right the experts were, he not only kicked the ass of the Pittsburg Steelers — he kicked the ass of all the pundits who have declared him unworthy.
Apologies to the person from the UK who is one of the 12 readers of this blog, but many years ago, I discovered that, for me, the perfect cure for insomnia is listening to the World Service of the BBC. As their newsreaders are speaking english (at least I assume they are), there’s enough understandable words being strung together to take my mind off whatever may be keeping me awake. Yet the Ambienic timbre of their voices and their monotonous delivery of random news from obscure corners of the globe all work together in a magical way to knock me out within five minutes of tuning in to their stream.
I say all that to explain that my inability to fully review the movie Tailor, Tinker, etc., is due to my BBC sleep training and that the movie is near continuous Lunesta-laced dialog delivered in the same flat monotones that make the BBC World News a miracle insomnia treatment for me.
However, I’ll give the movie 2 stars as I left the theater feeling extremely refreshed.
I shared in that post my opinion of the legislation known popularly (and unpopularly) as SOPA. In short, I oppose the legislation and view it as nothing more than an attempt by the entertainment industry to out-regulate what they can’t out-innovate. I also believe that by fighting battles on the field of copyright and intellectual property law and by using the term “piracy” to label activities that may not only be legal, but be beneficial to the copyright holder, we are in a place where a lot of bandwidth is being directed at trying to convince the other side(s) (no matter what side you’re on) rather than finding ways to evolve our understanding of what the internet is and what its potential can be.
Yesterday, I wrote that Jim Cooper is a very smart and intellectually curious individual. I appreciate, also, that he believes big problems can be broken down into parts so that they can be better understood. I agree with that approach, as well.
He suggested that those of us around the table probably agree on 95% of what’s in the legislation. I have no reason to believe his statistic is correct or in-correct, but I agree there’s probably a lot of fluff included in the legislation, most of which is designed to bury the contentious parts. (I also believe what I just said was a snide way to say, I agree with him.)
I also agree with the most important take-away and challenge Jim Cooper provided the group. In essence (I wasn’t taking notes), he said, “This is Nashville. We have the music industry here. We have a lot of talented technology people here. We should try to work together to address the issues we don’t agree on here. If there’s a way to solve the issues by working together, then Nashville should be where that happens.”
While I’m not quite sure we have the tech chops in Nashville equivalent to the music chops here, I do know that inside and outside those Nashville music companies that are endorsing SOPA are lots of extremely smart tech people who understand what their executives don’t. I know there are lots of creative, entrepreneurial and tech-savvy students and recent graduates from schools like Belmont’s music business program and Vanderbilt’s engineering and business schools who completely comprehend all the facets and nuances of the issues, musically and technically and business(ly?). And I know that if there are good alternatives to crappy technology (say, the MP3), then people who care about music (say, customers and fans) are willing to pay for it if they understand the value.
So, what Jim Cooper said perhaps should be listened to by those in Nashville who want to embrace the reality of the internet today and look for ways to innovate rather than legislate wherever possible.
Perhaps someone should write a song about this.
(Illustration: Polar bears having a snowball fight. It’s a Nashville thing.)
This morning I attended a meeting with my congressman and longtime friend, Jim Cooper. The small gathering was one of two he held today to hear from people who have let him know they support or oppose legislation that’s known popularly by its acronym, SOPA. As with any legislation, the name of HR 3261 was christened by its original sponsors who titled it officially, “The Stop Online Piracy Act to promote prosperity, creativity, entrepreneurship, and innovation by combating the theft of U.S. property, and for other purposes.”
As I think all of us apple-pie eating Americans can agree on the prosperity through property part, it’s the and for other purposes that is now generating enough controversy to cause members of congress to reach out to people they may think can provide various points of view on the legislation.
There were about eight or so of us in the meeting this morning (there was another meeting at 1:00 p.m.). As this is Nashville, the music industry was represented. There was a successful song-writer representing the songwriters association and a senior executive from a music company who still claims the company is a small startup, despite its current status as a financial juggernaut thanks to its embrace of a business model that would not have been possible before the advent of the internet — an irony apparently missed by the company.
As (and this may surprise you) there are other industries in Nashville that have nothing to do with music, other groups and points of view were represented. The Nashville Technology Council’s new CEO was there and a couple of developers who were well-versed on the evils of SOPA. I was there because I happened to mention SOPA in passing to Jim during a Thanksgiving Day gathering we both attended. (Note to self: Don’t do that again.) At the time, I knew little (nothing) about SOPA, except for my long-held theory that I should be against anything that is jointly supported by a consortium of unions, big corporations and the entertainment industry. (Like I said, it’s a theory.)
It didn’t surprise me that Jim is a sponsor of SOPA. If I were a congressman representing Nashville, it would be hard for me not to support legislation backed by every company that has a big building along the two streets in Nashville that comprise our most famous landmark avenue: Music Row.
(For a great bibliography of writings for, and against, SOPA, the reference section of the SOPA Wikipedia article will provide you with several hours of reading enjoyment covering all sides of the issue.)
My friend, Jim Cooper, is very, very smart (as in, Rhodes Scholar smart) and, frankly, if you didn’t know better, you’d think he is a university professor (which he is) and not a politician. I like him a lot and have supported him since he first ran for Congress when we were both in our 20s. Our children grew up together. He is intellectually curious and has a commitment to congressional reform that even Larry Lessig, as reported by Cory Doctorow, recognizes as genuine and forward-thinking. (I hope that’s enough of a caveat before the word “but.”)
But currently, he’s wrong on SOPA. While he explained today that sponsorship of the legislation is not necessarily a commitment to vote for it, the shading of language in that explanation is the type of nuance that encourages cynicism among citizens who may not be schooled on how one can “sponsor” something but not support it.
Jim represents a congressional district with more songwriters per-capita than any place on earth. (I made up that stat, but feel free to use it and say you read it on the internet.) The backers of SOPA in Nashville have brilliantly positioned songwriters as the poster children in their fight for SOPA. (If Pew Research had a survey about songwriters, no doubt they would rank right below soldiers and firemen as the people we most want to give a hug of thanks to.)
This morning’s SOPA meeting was, at least to me, an encouraging airing of the issues that alarm those who are against SOPA (like me) and those who support it. There was passion in the room, but no rancor.
I came away from the meeting thinking (however, this is a very personal opinion that was not stated or implied by anyone) that as SOPA’s critics turn up the heat (and the general population has seen nothing yet as to what type of heat its opponents can apply to demonstrate what some of the obvious unintended consequences could be if SOPA became law), members of Congress will look for ways to make SOPA go away, while appearing to make it look like they are doing something. Already, the bill’s sponsors have watered it down considerably from its original form. Water it down enough and it may as well be one of those Congressional proclamations declaring “National Anti-Piracy Week.”
Source: Distrust, Discontent, Anger and Partisan Rancor (http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1569/trust-in-government-distrust-discontent-anger-partisan-ranco
The biggest challenge that will face SOPA when awareness of it spreads from the geek community to a broader audience of internet users is this: SOPA is currently a bill with so many hypotheticals and economic theories swirling around it, no one can honestly say what the outcome will be if it is enacted. And (going back to my earlier-stated theory), those theories are provided by big business, unions and the entertainment industry.* Now, if you take a look at the chart accompanying this paragraph (if you’re reading this on my blog), you can see the relative levels of trust Americans place in different institutions, according to a Pew Research survey about 18 months ago. In other words, this legislation comes from a consortium of the institutions who Americans inherently distrust the most (except bankers).
That said, the entertainment industry is doing a great job of humanizing SOPA by focusing on protecting songwriters (have I mentioned how much I love songwriters?) who have been the biggest losers in the shift away from physical music to digital (especially in Nashville). I’ll admit, however, when I hear songwriters complain of their plight, it sounds just like former reporters from newspapers who have had their world change also (but for some reason, we don’t love them as much as we do songwriters).
SOPA is, in my opinion, nothing more than an attempt to wrap the word piracy around the preservation of a business model that has left the building. The entertainment industry should seek ways to work with their fans to help them understand the ramifications of piracy (and to find ways to give a bigger share of their revenues to songwriters). However, the entertainment industry seems more interested in turning their fans into convicts and the internet into something that can help bring back their good old days.
Lots of musicians in Nashville have figured the internet out. They are making it work for them.
They have figured out that obscurity is worse than piracy.
They don’t view people who love their music as the enemy.
*Later: This post from the Electronic Frontier Foundation, one of the groups leading the fight against SOPA, explores some of the specious stats regarding the negative impact on jobs caused by piracy. For example, the film industry claims piracy has caused the loss in jobs that is greater than the entire number of jobs in the industry before piracy. While I’m always hesitant to believe anyone’s self-serving statistics, my point in this post is to underscore the fact that the entertainment industry’s statistics are as believable as Disney Studios fairy tales.
So here we are. The beginning of a new year. That means I need to predict some stuff that I think will happen in 2012. (I think I read that once in the official bloggers’ user manual.) For whatever reason, here are some thoughts, predictions and wishful thinking.:
Technology
If you can’t code by the end of 2012, you’ll be a 98-lb. weaking and everyone will laugh at you behind your back. All the cool people are signing up for this: CodeYear.com. Other tech things: For like the 5th year in a row, I’ll predict that GetGlue takes off, however, it won’t really take off, but it will continue to grow. Services like Twitter (perhaps you’ve heard of that mobile message-relay management service), but for small, private groups (say, your family or your business associates), will hit your radar. See: GroupMe.com, recently purchased by Skype or Glassboard.com, started by my friend, Nick Bradbury and Brent Simmons, all-stars from the early days of blogging and RSS hackery.
Business & marketing
Long a topic of great concern and interest among some of the deepest thinkers on the web, the role of customer (user, supporter, member, et al) will grow into a big deal in the real world during 2012. This won’t be about all the things big companies are doing to collect and manipulate customer data (that’s been covered ad nauseum for years). This will be an awareness of things being developed so that customers can collect and use the same type of data to give measurable balance to both sides of any commercial interaction. If technology can be used to bring down governments, can’t it be used to even the data-collection and leverage the playing field between customers and big corporations, between any institution and its grass-roots supporters or membership? The IPO of Facebook will be the focus of a discussion of the value of relationships vs. products and we will hear lots of laments from the pioneers of online community over what has been built on the foundation they laid. (The laments will be deserved.) The IPO of Facebook will be a milestone, however, not the finish line. As we learn more and more how certain companies view us as hamsters in their cages, we will start to think more-and-more about how our role as customers should evolve. (But again, others started thinking about this long, long ago.) That topic will be explored in a book by one of the Cluetrain Manifesto authors, Doc Searls, that will be published in May, The Intention Economy: When Customers Take Charge. Like I said, this is not a new topic for a lot of people — but it is a very new topic for the vast majority of people who think Facebook is the Internet.
Culture
People will start growing tired of being panic junkies, so they’ll do one or both of two things: 1. Stop listening to panic-pushers. 2. Seek self-treatment for their panic addiction. Here’s my theory: One doesn’t necessarily have to be optimistic to make it through challenging times. However, if one responds to challenges with panic, failure is a sure bet. Some form of plodding realism, moving through challenges rather than away from them, is the only way I know that works. Yet we live in an era when lots of people seem to be panic junkies. Perhaps to the point where they seek out not-just real panics, but also crave artificial panics, like when you buy a ticket for a ride on a roller-coaster. Fox News and the New York Times are equally at fault for dishing out news in the form of outlier-anecdotes about new diseases or some obscure regulation that make the exception appear to be the norm. There are no longer mere storms — there are killer-storms. The word crisis is applied to anything that can be scrawled across the bottom of a TV screen. Perhaps this is more a wish than a prediction, but at some point, we’ve got to stop puffing on this panic. I’m voting that 2012 be the year this starts.
Elections & Policy
I could have written this a year ago, but here goes: Mitt Romney gets the GOP nomination. A well-funded conservative runs as an independent who will love the publicity without the possibility of actually being elected. (My guess: Sarah Palin.) Obama is re-elected by carrying Massachusetts. The Republicans lose a few seats in the House, but remain the majority. Republicans gain the majority in the Senate, but nothing near the 60 seats needed to actually control the Senate. And even if the Republicans gain 60, we’ll discover that 60 Republicans doesn’t mean 60 conservatives. We will continue to have, in the Senate, a form of coalition law-making. In other words, don’t look for grid-lock to go away anytime soon. The Supreme Court will rule that mandated health insurance is not un-constitutional. What is called Obama-care will roll out and we will discover it is both worse than and better than we imagined. The worst parts will be addressed. Life will go on. Social Security will become the nation’s most critical issue until lawmakers decide to raise the retirement age and look for some rich people hiding behind trees that can be taxed for the rest of the balancing act necessary. [Note: I am merely predicting the above, not endorsing them.]
Nashville
The Predators will make it past the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Titans make the playoffs (2012-13 season). Nashville continues to move up a few notches in the eyes of non-Nashvillian trend-trackers. Nashvillians start explaining to out of town friends that a city that attracts waves of people who dream of being either healthcare entrepreneurs or professional banjo pickers — or both — can’t be replicated.
One of the things we were led to believe in 2011 was a myth about Steve Jobs being a perfectionist. This myth was given a free pass by everyone from The New Yorker on down.
In reality, his perfectionism, while noted and admired on this blog countless times, was highly selective and limited only to those items, like the shapes of screws and the desire to have no buttons, that captured Jobs’ imagination.
Other things at Apple were not subject to his selective perfectionism.
I’m thinking the Sync Cable Team is to Apple what the Delta Tau Chis are to fraternity row on Animal House. Steve obviously did not care what went on there. Heck, they could have been dropping acid, for all he cared. At least that’s my theory.
How else can one explain why, after manufacturing these cables for a decade, Apple still hasn’t perfected a means to produce them in a way that will make them last longer than a few months without become frayed and cracked?
I currently have three cables that all look like the one pictured above. Well, not exactly like the one above. The one above is the only one I’ve added some duct tape to.
Magazine apps will stop being called magazine apps: The point I was making has gone mainstream. Magazine companies are beginning to put out apps that aren’t magazine replications, but are actual apps — like the one Fortune put out with its 1,000 list.
The developers of any app that includes text will discover accelerometer-aided “text scrolling” is better than page-flipping: This was more wishful thinking than predicting. It didn’t happen. I still think it’s odd that such an obvious feature is not a part of apps that primarily serve as text readers. Pages and flipping and sliding are so 16th century. Tilting is so 2012. (The feature was a part of the now defunct ebook reader, iFlow.)
Expect an announcement about Flipboard, Twitter and something that sounds a lot like an RSS “newsreader”: This happened, several times. Read the official Flipboard tips for all sorts of features that turn Flipboard into an RSS reader that looks like a magazine replication, complete with 16th century page-flipping.
Questions & Answers will still be questions & answers: This referred to the obsession that was taking place a year ago over Quora, a site that was supposed to be the next-next thing. I guess you could go to it and ask why no one seems to be so obsessed anymore…but the answer would be about the same as what I predicted.
Apple will mashup features of Keynote and iMovie and create a program called iAnimator: Okay. Apple didn’t do this and the folks who did, didn’t call it iAnimator. And what I failed to mention was this: The resulting animation will be in HTML5. Nevermind Apple didn’t do it: A couple of Apple developers left the company and did. It’s called Tumult Hype and if you use Keynote and and iMovie and Garageband, you’ll see what I mean.
Designers will discover the key to user-love is simple, minimalist, user interfaces. I nailed this one. Except, I think lots of designers still don’t know it. Here’s what I mean: If you didn’t jump on the bandwagon when it was limited to Instapaper and Readability, try out Evernote’s Clearly and maybe you’ll discover that websites that primarily display text for reading are best formatted when they make such reading easy. (It took me a long time to figure that out, too.)
Two words for 2011: Kindle Singles: I could have picked out dozens of stories that demonstrate the fulfillment of what I predicted last year (magazines can turn Kindle Singles into a means to generate significant revenue from their archives is one of the points I made), but I especially like the example making the rounds this week about a magazine editor who retired, re-worked a 20-year-old unpublished 3,500 word manuscript into a 5,000 word best-selling Kindle Single.
You will publish your book in print: Maybe you did. The print-on-demand technology would allow you to. It will get only easier this year. (I know people, see.)
You will start thinking the word “social” is so last decade: Okay, so it will be in 2012.
Android devices will continue to improve….I’ll purchase an Android device: Did I mention I wrote this on my Kindle Fire?
In the U.S., we don’t have Boxing Day. In the U.S., the day after Christmas is, well, the day after Christmas. However, when Christmas is on Sunday, the federal holiday is Monday, the 26th. That means that today is an official national holiday and all the businesses are closed. Well, except for all the businesses that are open. And that means stores that want to sell you stuff with the gift-cards and cash that may have come your way in the past 24 hours.
Alas, today is what Boxing Day has become in the UK — a big shopping holiday. An unnamed black friday. A day to return stuff and exchange stuff and buy more stuff.
While I’m typically put-off by exhibitions of conspicuous consumption, I’ve decided to forego my judgmental attitude for this one-day only. We’ve got an economy to save, people. Get out there and buy. Indeed, if someone is between you and something you’d like to purchase, know that today, while it is not cool to use pepper spray, if I understand this UK holiday correctly, it is okay to clear a path with a swift left upper-cut.
On this date in 1862, President Lincoln signed into law the legislation that created what we know today as the Medal of Honor. The photo accompanying this post is of the cover of the current edition of Semper Fi, a magazine Hammock provides publishing management services for the association, the Marine Corps League. The Marine on the cover is Dakota Meyer, a native of Kentucky who received the Medal of Honor earlier this year. It is impossible to convey the level of bravery Meyer exhibited in the actions that led to his being awarded the Medal. However, those who receive this award, always seem surprised that they received it. Anyone would do it, they all seem to say. Humility is an attribute of a recipient, it appears. Respect and honor for those who died beside them are always what they first talk about whenever asked about the Medal.
As one would think for an honor so special, a large percentage of the recipients die in the act of heroism for which they receive this rare award. Meyer is the first living Marine to receive the honor in 38 years.
One thing I learned from our team who works on Semper Fi is that a statement Dakota Meyer said about the actions that led to his award have entered into a very small and hallowed collection of iconic statements that all Marines will know, forever more:
“I didn’t think I was going to die. I knew I was.”
I am awed by those who display such willingness to sacrifice all in service to their country and to their brothers beside them. Greater love hath no man.
Bonus: This morning, NPR ran a story about a Medal of Honor recipient from the Battle of Iwo Jima. I’ve embedded it below.
Admit it. You blew the entire weekend before Christmas not getting out there and expressing your consumer spirit — the spirit necessary to send this old Scrooge of an economy packing. Fear not, for I bring you tidings of great joy — especially if you think economic joy begins at home. And by home, I’m referring to Tennessee, my home for the past three decades.
Thanks to some geographically-close and friendly elves of mine on Facebook, I’ve put together the following list of gift-ideas for the procrastinated shopper. Each item, in some way, has a connection to Tennessee. It turned out that most of them ended up being from Nashville and Middle Tennessee — that may reflect a statistical bias of my Facebook friend list. I looked for items you can purchase pretty much anywhere in the U.S., generating sales tax revenue for your local economy. Of course, if you purchase them on Amazon.com, I’ll get a commission on my affiliate account (I’m up to $5.75 for the year) and Amazon may ship them to you FedEx (Memphis), making the purchase a Tennessee economic twofer. As a bonus, I’ve tried to find items (or the stores that sell them) that represent a unique (uh, I need one of those German words, something like gestalt or zeitgeist) essence Nashville and Middle Tennessee artists and entrepreneurs seem to have perfected: the ability to create brands and products that evoke an American folk or heartland tradition, while being packaged and marketed with astute, savvy and, sometimes, market-distrupting innovation.
So if you’ve been naughty in putting off your shopping to the last few days before Christmas, go ahead and be nice to my home-state’s economy by choosing something from the following list:
A guitar-shaped cast-iron skillet from Lodge. Just think of the possibilities.
11. A Lodge Cast Iron Skillet (South Pittsburg): Founded in 1896, Lodge is the the oldest family-owned cookware foundry in America. (At least, according to them, it is. I’m not sure where to fact-check claims related to family-owned foundries.) While you can’t order from their website and get delivery by Christmas, they have four factory stores or, since they last forever, you can always find one on ebay.
Team caps and more logo'd items than you can think of can be found at Lids, the Genesco-owned chain.
10. Shoes, Hats or Boots (Nashville): Go to practically any mall or major airport in America and look for one the 2,300 retail locations of the following retail chains: Journeys Kidz, Shi by Journeys, Underground Station, Lids or Johnston & Murphy. Buy anything. The companies are all owned by Nashville-based Genesco. If you’re addicted to Zappos.com and don’t buy shoes at the mall, you can purchase the two brands of shoes Genesco still manufactures or distributes through channels outside its branded stores: Johnston & Murphy and Dockers (a brand Genesco licenses). As for boots, back in the day (translation: when we put adjectives in front of the word “China” like “mainland,” “communist” and “red”), nearly every cowboy boot in the universe was made in Tennessee. Other than some handmade boots that may take you months and a second-mortgage to get, I doubt there’s any factory-made boot manufactured in the U.S. (except those made for the U.S. military). However, there are still several boot brands based in Middle Tennessee. To make sure they’ve got a Tennessee-connection, look for one of the brands from Franklin-based Dan Post Boots. However, an easier way to have a Tennessee-connection for many different brands of boots is to just purchase a pair at one of over 1,000 stores in 44 state operated by the Nashville-based Tractor Supply Company. To find a store, go the the outer edge of the most distant suburb of the city you live in, then drive a little farther out. (Here’s a directory, by state>.)
9. Griffin Beacon Universal Remote (Amazon link) : What could be more traditional that watching TV? What could be more innovative than replacing every remote control with one device and iPhone/iPad/Android app (Dijit) that actually fulfills the perpetual promise of combining every remote control you have into one gizmo. And, as you’ll see several more times on this list, it’s from Griffin Technology (Nashville). Best thing: You can purchase it just about anywhere cool electronic gizmos are sold. (The link above is to Amazon and when I linked it there, it was priced aggressively and it is in stock.) I saw one at Target last week, where I purchased it to ensure that my stocking has something other than lumps of coal in it. (Bonus idea, just because it’s a geek toy and everything else on this list isn’t, and also because you can buy it at Target on the way home today: The Griffin Helo TC, an indoor remote control helecopter you control with an iPhone, iPad or iPod Touch.)
8. A Gibson instrument, hand-made in Tennessee, with legal wood the EPA should get the hell off Gibson’s back about:I bet $10,000 Mitt Romney could afford the pictured $10,000 Sam Bush Signature Mandolin. But fortunately, Nashville-based Gibson has a wide-array of musical instruments at most any price-point you need. However, when it comes to the hand-made classics, Gibson still shines. A mandolin officiando can pick up a Sam Bush signature and hear the echo of the 1920s Gibson luthier, Lloyd Loar, who would be known as the Stradivarius of the mandolin if Stradivarius hadn’t made mandolins, grabbing the Stradivarius of the mandolin title before Loar came along. By the way, if you have no idea what that pointed political jab at the end of the title of this gift suggestion was all about, let’s just say, Stradivarius was lucky he didn’t have the EPA around back then.
7. Music (Nashville): Surprising suggestion, huh? Nashville is filled with the artists and business-types who create and package the music you hear at cheap honky-tonks on Saturday night and in mega-churches on Sunday morning. In other words, you don’t need this list to find music from Nashville (in the form of CDs or iTunes gift cards) to stick in a Christmas stocking on Christmas eve. However, if you want some Nashville music that’s not by Taylor Swift, here are four ideas (note: this could have been a very long list) that may not have been the type of music you’d think of as being Nashville:
Daugherty’s Metropolis Symphony / Deus Ex Machina, performed by the Nashville Symphony and recorded at Nashville’s Schermerhorn Symphony Center: If you think I’m just suggesting this recording to make Nashville sound high-falootin’ or something, I’ll add this endorsement: In February, the recording won three classical-category Grammys for the five-movement piece inspired by the Superman comics. Yeah, and you thought you knew what “Music City” referred to.
El Camino, The Black Keys: Let’s say you were from Akron, Ohio, and you were a super star and could play anywhere you wanted. You’d choose Miami Beach, right? Well, Akron natives Dan Auerbach and Patrick Carney (The Black Keys) decided to move to Nashville. In 2011, they won the same number of Grammys the Nashville Symphony won (3). El Camino is their first Nashville-recorded album. Rolling Stone Magazine ranked it one of top rock albums of the year. Heck, even elitist listeners of NPR like me ranked it #7 on the list of top albums in 2011.
The Goat Rodeo Sessions: When you want to talk about innovation and tradition merged, well, don’t talk. Just listen to this album created (in Nashville) by whoever your personal higher-being-of-choice might be and Yo-Yo Ma, Stuart Duncan, Edgar Meyer and Chris Thile, with vocals by Aoife O’Donovan. Nothing I can say about it will come close to describing what happens when you combine the talents of individuals who each have boundless talent.
Own Side Now, Caitlin Rose: I wanted to add a country album from someone who might sound like you’d hear from Nashville if country music artists in Nashville didn’t have to create music that was packaged to appeal to soccer moms and their pre-teen daughters. But then I got scooped by Time magazine who included Caitlin Rose’s album in their top 10 albums of 2011. Frankly, Caitlin’s style of acoustic Americana-fused with alt.country and pure twang is something you’d usually discover far away from Nashville — say, Austin. Fortunate for us, Caitlin is one of those rarest of Nashville country music phenomena: she’s actually from Nashville. So no matter where she goes with her career, she’ll be Nashville. (Sort of how the Black Keys are still Akron.)
6. Third Man 45 iPhone case (Nashville): This is the list’s first Nashville “three-fer,” as this iPhone case was created and is being marketed by two Nashville companies, Griffin Technology (if you’re keeping count, this is the third of four Griffin mentions on this list) and Third Man Records, the indie music idea factory created and run by the official 2011 Music City Ambassador Award Winner, Jack White. Throw in the fact that the case is made from a Third Man Records 7″ single custom-cut vinyl record pressed by another Nashville company, United Record Pressing, and you have a hat-trick. Consider that Nashville still has a vinyl record pressing plant and a working letterpress print shop and you’ll begin to see why you couldn’t replicate Nashville in, say, Silicon Valley.
5. The Family Fang: A Novel, by Kevin Wilson (Sewanee):: When this book by Sewanee author (and creative writing professor at the University of the South) was published in August, New York Time’s Janet Maslin gushed over it. It went on to become a Times bestseller and is on lots of Top Books of the Year lists, including Amazon’s, so that means it’s 50% off the list price at the link above. Need more Tennessee connections? The movie option for the book was acquired a couple of months ago by Nashville soccer-mom, Nichole Kidman.
4. Nissan Leaf (Middle Tennessee) or Volkswagen Passat (Chattanooga): If you need a Leaf by Christmas, you’re out of luck, but the Nissan Leaf can be reserved for delivery later. While the Leaf won’t be manufactured in Middle Tennessee until late 2012, it is still quite a Tennessee car, as the North American headquarters of Nissan is located in the Nashville suburb of Franklin and Nissan Manufacturing is based in Smyrna, another nearby community. And thanks to $1.4 billion from the tax-payers of the U.S., Nissan will also be making the batteries for the Leaf and other electric cars in Smyrna soon, as well. So you may think the Leaf, the 2011 World Car of the Year, is from Japan. But when I see one, I’m thinking about all the good ol boys and girls from Tennessee who’ll be making them — and creating marketing material and websites and on and on. As for the Passat made in Chattanooga, it’s Motortrend’s Car of the Year, or what we say in Tennessee, the car’s got some far-out fahrvergnügen. Also, the Pssat’s Darth Vader commercial (see embed) was not only the best Superbowl commercial of 2011, it is one of the best commercials of all time (according to my wife). 2012 Prediction: Next year if I have one of these lists, a likely entry will be the Chevrolet Equinox as GM’s Spring Hill plant is being prepared to start cranking them out in early 2012.
3. Anything bearing the Col. Littleton brand (Lynnville): Lynnville, Tennessee, a small community about an hour south of Nashville, is home to the savvyist marketing colonel since Col. Sanders invented fried chicken by the bucket. Just visit the company’s website, ColonelLittleton.com, or its “official outpost” store called Abernathy Road on Second Avenue in Nashville (named after the Col.’s address in Lynnville), or check out the Col. Littleton Channel on YouTube. The guy captures the essence of what I’m referring to about the unique grasp some folks from ’round these parts seem to have on Americana marketing. And, hold on to your Col. Littleton hat, if you mix up the brand and line of goods from Col Littleton with the tech-accessory design and distribution savvy of Griffin (my fourth, and last, mention of the company), well, you’ve got one of the most amazing Tennessee combinations since Elvis met Col. Tom Parker. From a MacBook Pro case Griffin offered a couple of years ago, to this year’s complete line of Col. Littleton products for iPads, iPhones, MacBook Airs and more, Col. Littleton and Griffin are the best duo since Dolly and Porter broke up.
2. Jack Daniels 2011 Holiday Select: A little east from Col. Littleton’s hometown, you’ll find the place where they make what is, without a doubt, the most successfully marketed Tennessee-made product that’s not music. Anything bearing the Jack Daniels brand is 80 percent proof of what I’m saying.
1. A Donation to Susan G. Komen for the Cure: Make a donation in your hometown, in honor of someone you love who is battling breast cancer. I first had a Bible chosen for this #1 gift idea from Nashville and Tennessee. It seemed so obvious, considering the holiday and the fact Nashville is the bible-publishing center of the universe. However, late last week, a Nashville Bible publisher inspired me to make a donation to the Susan G. Komen for the Cure chapter in Nashville instead of recommending a Bible published by them. It’s one of the few times in my life when I’ve known without a doubt, that’s what Jesus would do.
Merry Christmas.
(If you’d like a little Christmas bumper music for this post, I can’t think of a better one than this one from Nashville-native Amy Grant.)
Note from the legal department: This is a parody of the iconic Peter Steiner cartoon that appeared in the New Yorker in 1993. It can be purchased here: http://www.condenaststore.com/-sp/On-the-Internet-nobody-knows-you-re-a-dog-New-Yorker-Cartoon-Prints_i8562841_.htm
There’s a story by Anita Wadhwani appearing today on Tennessean.com regarding the efforts of a company called Klout to create a measurement of someone’s influence online about a particular topic. As the company is backed by the influential (in ways more important than may be indicated by its Klout score of 50) VC firm Kleiner Perkins, the company Klout has been gaining momentum (recognition? influence? — Klout has a Klout score of 86) in the past six months or so. With its success, the company has drawn criticism for a wide range of reasons, most of which are covered in the this October Gigaom piece by Mathew Ingram, so I’ll skipped all the “Klout is evil” stuff in this post.
Anita did a great job capturing the essence of what the company is all about, and added a local angle to the story by analyzing some people in Nashville who, for whatever reason, are liked by Klout’s algorithms. In the story, I got to play the role of the “humble bragger” (see: @humblebrag), wherein I say, in essence, “Klout is a joke — unless you’re talking about my score.”
There’s a reason for my ambivalence towards a service like Klout (beyond the humble bragging one). I completely understand why people — especially marketers — want a measurement, or even a currency, of influence to exist. The topic of such an online social currency has been around for as long as online communities have existed and was popularized in a very geekish and entertaining sci-fi way by Cory Doctorow in his novel Down and Out in the Magic Kingdom (free download), a book set in a future in which there is a “post-scarcity economy” based on a reputational currency called Whuffie. In the past, I’ve described Whuffie as similar to the role reputation management plays for those who buy and sell on eBay. On eBay, your reputation (or let’s call it a marketing term, “brand”) has a direct impact on your ability to sell something at all — or to sell it at the highest possible price. (For example, you’ll pay a premium three days before Christmas to purchase from a seller who has a 100% ranking and lots of comments about how they ship things when they promise to.)
However, unlike your reputation on eBay, a Klout score is, at best, some not-ready-for-prime-time Whuffie for many reasons. First off, Klout depends on algorithms that analyze expressions of influence, not measurements of actual influence. Expressions are, at best, a proxy of influence. No doubt, from a business-model standpoint, “expressions” are extremely valued by marketers. Google has become one of the most valuable companies on the planet by making search recommendations based on expressions (clicks and links) and not necessarily transactions. Nearly every measurement marketers depend on (TV ratings, for example) are measurements of proxies of influence — how many people may be watching a TV show may measure something, but it doesn’t measure how effective an specific ad is in making me want to purchase a product. Likewise, the circular nature of such proxies of influence — the more Google points to your content and generates clicks (expressions), the more expressions of influence you generate, influencing the algorithms of Google even more — is a challenge that will also impact Klout scores and those who will no-doubt want to game them.
(Note: There is an exception to that generalized observation of Google advertising: Some advertisers, online direct marketers for example, do know when a specific Google ad works and can measure precisely the return-on-investment of each ad they place — for them, the use of Google Adwords is a near-scientific practice akin to arbitrage. You know who you are, if this is the way you use Adwords.)
Let me try to simplify this: Buying something on eBay and then rating and reviewing the quality of the transaction and your opinion of the seller (or the buyer), is far more than a proxy measure of influence. It is currency that can add measurable value at the point of transaction — or, as we marketers like to call it, “conversion” (as in, conversion from freemium tire-kicker to subscriber). A click or Retweet or follow or friending are expressions of popularity and familiarity that, no doubt, represent something that might be termed “influence.” But a purchase that is then translated into a metric that captures both quantitative and qualitative data could be a source of influence that could serve both buyer and seller alike in ways only imagined today (or long-ago, in Cory Doctorow books).
Another challenge Klout faces is one that Google and its competitors must address daily. The algorithm that measures influence for you may not be the algorithm that measures influence for me. Consider the Google results page of 2011 (for a logged-in user) compared to the Google results page of ten years ago, the point about where Klout might be today, by comparison. Today, it is nearly impossible for you and me to search the same terms and receive the same Google results because the company’s algorithms take into consideration information I have provided it through my active request or passively permitted by my acceptance of their terms of usage.
Klout recently threw out an early generation algorithm that was terribly flawed. I know it was flawed because I was the beneficiary of a flaw in it. No matter how much flack they received by scrapping the old algorithm, I can tell you that it’s far closer to something half-way indicative of a certain type of influence today than it was before — but it’s still not close to what real influence is. But, like Google proves, algorithms are a long-distance journey.
Anita’s article points out another challenge a marketer might have in converting a Klout score into something of value. In Nashville, for example, there are a few high Klout scores that I would say are direct results of how actively the person plays good with social media (blogging for ten years and five years of tweeting goofy tweets that others re-tweet has been my strategy to influence Klout — except I was doing it long before Klout existed).
But other Nashville examples are more about the offline expertise and popularity of the individual, and how well they’ve integrated social media into their relationship with those who know them as, well, Taylor Swift or an expert in something related to church or parenting or a topic like cattle husbandry.
Pure online influence, or offline influence that has been converted to online influence — they’re both valid forms of influence, I guess.
So, bottomline, the Klout score is, at the end of the day, about as valuable as some of the metrics it tries to replace: sheer numbers of followers or “likes” or whatever. Until you can measure actual transactions (conversions) or the roles of offline vs. online sources of influence, when you measure a big basket of metrics all based on different expressions of the same sorts of likes and follows and retweets, you’re going to find out that a high Klout score is directly correlated to how long, how helpful and how actively a person uses the full set of tools social media provides.
In the end, Klout is another company that borrows all those social media things people do online and packages them up into something a venture company might fund and marketers might buy. But all it is at the end of the day, is us: users of social media. We are, as my friend Dave Winer sometimes uses as a metaphor — playing in Klout’s hamster cage.
No more, no less.
If you want to play with Klout, go ahead. Just don’t pretend it’s real influence. (Oh, unless it’s mine.)
Addendum:
When working on her story, Anita emailed to ask me who I would suggest as influential Nashville social media users, I didn’t have to think more than a second to respond the following:
Dave Delaney is the glue that holds together lots of those of us who have geekish tendencies. I have no idea what his “klout score” is, but I’d
give him a 100 for the influence he has earned and uses on behalf of
the company he works for, Griffin Technology, and for social media in
Nashville, in general.
This past week marked the fifth anniversary Geek Breakfast, just one of the many Nashville geek community activities Dave has created or fostered. Geek Breakfasts are now monthly traditions in cities around the country and internationally.
Dave’s a great evangelist for his employer — and for Nashville.
Thanks, Dave. You’re the real deal with it comes to influencing me (as you’ll see in a post I’ll add to this blog on Monday.)
The blog of Rex Hammock, founder/ceo of Hammock Inc., the content marketing, strategy and media company founded in 1991 in Nashville, Tenn. Rex is also founder/helper-in-chief of the wiki, SmallBusiness.com.