Dubious: Look, the Internet is great and I love web advertising, but do I think dollars spent on online advertising will match dollars spent on magazines by 2007, then surpass them in 2008? No. But that’s what JupiterResearch predicts, according to a story in the WSJ today (subscribers only).
Magazine publishers often set out to woo advertising dollars from television, but they might want to focus on a different sort of screen. A new report from Jupitermedia’s JupiterResearch predicts that dollars spent on online advertising — defined as a paid message featured on a Web site, online service or other interactive medium, such as instant message or e-mail — will match dollars spent on magazines by 2007, then surpass them in 2008.
Sorry. This research just doesn’t pass the smell test. (That won’t keep it from being plugged into business-plan spread sheets in real-time, however.) Actually, a more interesting story would be “the history of online advertising predictions from JupiterResearch” that goes into a little bit more detail on this point the story raises:
Of course, Jupiter has been a longtime supporter of the Internet — and can get ahead of itself. In 1999, for example, Jupiter said it expected online advertising in 2003 to total $11.5 billion, but the economic downturn got in the way. According to the company’s current report, 2003 online advertising came to $6.6 billion.
Maybe they should have learned: Unlike when you predict the future, in real-life stuff gets in the way of the future. Stuff happens.