Take this prediction to the bank

Take this prediction to the bank: Let’s review some history, first.

  • September 28, 2004 (Day 1 of the Era of Podcasting): If you Googled
    the word “podcasts” you would get only 24 results. For the record,
    there was podcasting before this, but that was the day Doc Searls blogged the concept and he was clever enough to do that google search.
  • February 25, 2005 (Day
    140 of the Podcasting Era): An article appears in the NY Times (abstract) announcing the creation of an “eBay of Podcasting.” (My post on that day, “Podcasting needs no eBay.)
  • May 24, 2004 (Day 238 of the Era of Podcasting, 98 days since that NY Times
    announcement, or 41% percent of the Era of Podcasting has passed since that NY Times announcement): Business Week publishes an article about the product that’s no longer going to be the eBay of Podcasting, but now is going to be a “a one-stop
    Web site where the masses can find and subscribe to podcasts, and
    create new podcasts with ease” and will appear next month.

Here is my prediction: By the 365th day of the Era of Podcasting, a
company named after a fruit will, in addition to other-related announcements,  announce “a one-stop website” where
“the rest of us” can find and subscribe to podcasts, and create new
pocasts with ease.” And soon thereafter, the podcasts created there can even be given away or sold
(if that’s what you want to do) via their already existing 800 lb.
gorilla music store thing.

Also, by Day 365 of the Era of Podcasting, I also predict that Yahoo!
will have one. And that dozens of open-source, grassroots, students in
dorm rooms and others will have one-stop websites where we can do that
easy podcasting thing.

As for me (and I hate doing this as I’ve sworn off mentioning them),
since I use Garage Band, iTunes, Safari and an iPod, I’ll probably be
podcasting on an as-yet-announced .Mac version of those one-stop websites.

I predict they’ll all be as cool as Odeo’s hype.

2 thoughts on “Take this prediction to the bank

  1. I find it interesting that you assume that conventional media is so often inaccurate and has a tendency to take things out of context, yet you’ll use their words to attack Odeo, which is attempting to help grow and promote a medium you support.

    If you don’t like the words that the Times or Businessweek uses, why are you faulting Odeo?

  2. There I go again. Attacking conventional media. Anil. I like Movable Type, okay. Your put products out and then announce them. That’s the correct order. You don’t spend months saying you are going to change the world — you’ve done it. TypePad is successful for something more than hype. I like that in companies. What I don’t like is trying to use pre-blog era PR tactics to claim marketshare and by spinning a story that is so amusingly transparent. It reminds me of epinions launch, okay. Great product. Great people. Great idea. A victim of believing in their own hype.

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